1. An Economic Forecast Tampa, FL September 1 st, 2015

2. The Rules of the Game Matter  They change the way the players play the game.  They can change the outcome of the game itself.  Freeze tag

3. The Rules of the Game Matter Federal Regulation and Aggregate Economic Growth by John W. Dawson and John J. Seater Journal of Economic Growth (2013) 18:137-177 Examined Economic Growth and Productivity 1949-2005

5. The Rules of the Game Matter Results: Regulations have reduced real GDP growth an average of 2% per year. Real GDP in 2005 would have been $53.9 trillion instead of the $15.1 trillion

6. The Rules of the Game Matter Results: Productivity is impacted by regulatory growth The conundrum of declining productivity in the 1970’s attributable to a doubling in the number of pages of regulation.

7. The Rules of the Game Matter 2013 CFR 175,000 Dodd-Frank law 2,300 pages – 22,296 pages of rules so far – Another 13,000 on the way Affordable Care Act

8. The Rules of the Game Matter Dan Gallagher, Commissioner of the SEC: “And really, to me, Bob, the burden isn’t necessarily as much as the regulations that came from Dodd-Frank. Some of them are just completely nonsensical. I mean, nothing to do with the financial crisis, aren’t really germane to the function of the SEC and that’s what happens when you get a runaway piece of legislation.”

10. U.S. Forecast  Payroll jobs to reach potential

12. 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015201620172018 GDP % Change, Annual Rate 0.62.91.92.22.62.72.5 Consumer Price Index % Change, Annual Rate -0.9-3.1-0.7-0.32.12.42.6 Consumer Sentiment 95.594.292.294.192.692.392.6 Consumption % Change, Annual Rate 2.52.92.43.0 2.72.6 U.S. Forecast

13. Global Factors - Oil  The Arithmetic of Lower Oil Prices:  Each $1 decrease in the price of a barrel of oil will:  Decrease price of gallon of gas 2.5 cents  Push consumer gasoline bills down $3 billion  Lower the CPI 0.03%  Raise real disposable income 0.25%

14. Global Factors - Oil  The Economics of lower Oil Prices:  Each permanent $10 decrease in the price of a barrel of oil will:  Raise forecast real GDP growth 0.2% in 1 st year, 0.5% in the 2 nd  Raise forecast of payroll employment 110,000 in 1 st year and 390,000 in 2nd  Psychic Impact  Domestic production impacts?

15.  Greece and the Euro  All the Greek bailouts, haircut & the election are stays of execution and not pardons  Euro still facing greatest threat since inception  Two (long-run) possible outcomes for the Euro zone Global Factors - Eurozone

16.  Is the Chinese economy a pagoda of cards?  Economy slowing  Stock market plunge  Desperate attempts to stop the decline  Depreciation of the Yuan Global Factors - China

17.  IMF revised down 2015 world growth outlook: 3.3%  2016: 3.8%  Brazil – worst recession in 25 years  Latin America/Caribbean sub 2% outlook  Canadian recession 1 st half 2015  Stronger U.S. Dollar Global Factors - ROW

18. U.S. Forecast  Will the Bankruptcy of Sky Mall Put an End to Sky Mall™ Policies?  Sky Mall™ Policy:  An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

19. U.S. Forecast

25. Florida Housing Market  Housing market recovery continues  Double-digit price appreciation has returned  Investors chasing shrinking pool of distressed properties  Housing finance still an issue

26. Housing Market  Housing Finance  Mortgage availability slowly improving  Mortgages have been restricted by  Dodd Frank  Capital Standards  Underwriting Standards  Limited Private Securitization  Demise of Mortgage Brokering

27. U.S. Forecast

28. Florida Housing Market

30. June 2015June 2014 Percent change Closed Sales27,72923,18119.6% Median Sale Price $203,500$185,00010.0% Median Days on Market 4757-17.5% Inventory ( Months Supply ) 4.65.6-17.4% Florida Housing Market

31. Florida Forecast

39. 2015-2018 Averages; Q2 2015 Forecast Florida Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction7.9 Professional & Business Services4.1 Trade, Transportation & Utilities3.4 Education-Health Services2.2 Leisure & Hospitality1.9 State & Local Government0.9 Information0.7 Financial0.5 Manufacturing0.4 Federal Government-0.7

40. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.5--- Deltona 1.27 Gainesville 0.812 Jacksonville 1.55 Lakeland 1.29 Miami 1.26 Naples 2.61 Ocala 1.73 Orlando 2.32 Palm Bay 1.27 Pensacola 0.911 Tallahassee 1.110 Tampa 1.64 2015-2018 Averages; Q2 2015 Forecast

41. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 2.2--- Deltona 2.06 Gainesville 1.412 Jacksonville 1.89 Lakeland 1.88 Miami 2.05 Naples 3.31 Ocala 2.53 Orlando 3.02 Palm Bay 2.34 Pensacola 1.411 Tallahassee 1.510 Tampa 2.07 2015-2018 Averages; Q2 2015 Forecast

42. Orlando Sector % Average Annual Growth Construction7.9 Professional & Business Services4.7 Trade, Transportation & Utilities3.4 Leisure & Hospitality2.6 Education-Health Services2.6 Financial1.2 Manufacturing1.0 Information1.0 State & Local Government0.4 Federal Government-0.4

43. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness (407) 823-1453 Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDUwww.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith Thank you