Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Aug. 1, 2019 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 91.7 Yield (bu./acre) 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 166.0 Production (mil. bu.) 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 13,875 Beg. Stocks 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,340 Imports 67 57 36 35 50 Total Supply 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,595 16,265 Feed & Residual 5,120 5,470 5,304 5,275 5,175 Ethanol 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,450 5,500 Food, Seed, & Other 1,422 1,453 1,451 1,430 Exports 1,898 2,294 2,438 2,100 2,150 Total Use 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,255 Ending Stocks 2,010 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.61 3.36 3.60 3.70 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted (mil. acres) 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 80.0 Yield (bu./acre) 48.0 52.0 49.3 51.6 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,926 4,296 4,412 4,544 3,845 Beg. Stocks 191 197 302 438 1,050 Imports 24 22 17 20 Total Supply 4,140 4,515 4,735 4,999 4,915 Crush 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,085 2,115 Seed & Residual 122 146 113 165 130 Exports 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,700 1,875 Total Use 3,944 4,214 4,297 3,949 4,120 Ending Stocks 795 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.50 8.40 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

U.S. Corn Condition Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

U.S. Soybean Condition Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

Weather Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC 6 6

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Global Shares Source: USDA

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.06 Source: CME Group, 7/31/2019

Current Soybean Futures 8.76 Source: CME Group, 7/31/2019

2018/19 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

2019/20 Crop Margins Based on futures prices

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/