Base on maximum operating wind capacity at end of planning period

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Presentation transcript:

Back-of-envelope balancing reserve adequacy check for draft 6th Plan Portfolio Base on maximum operating wind capacity at end of planning period Existing wind capacity (Operating + Under construction) Maximum buildout of wind in draft portfolio Estimate balancing reserve requirement Estimated growth in incremental balancing reserve requirement (MW rapid-response capacity/MW wind as percent of load) BPA needs assessment Extend to region Adjust down by estimated impact of improved forecasting. Estimate supply of rapid-response capacity Assume BPA capability is representative for large hydro + allowance for non-federal large hydro + allowance for RR capability of existing thermal units (CC, GT, Coal?? - PGE work) + allowance for RR capability of new thermal units in portfolio at max wind buildout.

Issues So simple as to be worse than nothing? If so, is there a better approach (Nothing not an option) How should we view California acquisitions (larger issue)