1. Nordic Winter Power Balance 2010-2011
December 3, 2010

2. POWER BALANCE 2010-2011 With estimated power exchange [MW]
****)
Cold winter day in
1 of 10 winters
NORDIC MARKET
TOTAL
P =
Available capacity
73 900
FINLAND
TSO reserves excluded P
13 300
C =
Peak demand *)
72 100 C
15 000
SWEDEN B
-1 700
Balance without power
B =
1 800 P
28 000
exchange R
1 200 C
28 200
R =
Reserves available for the
5 300 B
-200
TSOs R
1 400
NORWAY
*) 2 % lower than sum of national peaks.
Arrows between and to/from the Nordic
countries indicate the most probable
power flow direction during peak hours. P
26 000 C
23 900 B
2 100 R
1 200
DENMARK P
6 600 C
6 500 B
100 R
1 500
December 3, 2010

3. POWER BALANCE 2010-2011 Comments
Denmark
The winter 2010/2011 is expected to be normal with no particular problems. The power balance is expected to be positive even during severe winter conditions for Denmark as a whole. The critical point in the Danish system is the power balance in Denmark East, which is weaker compared with Denmark West. The balance on Denmark East is dependent on interconnectors to Denmark West, Sweden, and Germany.
Finland
Finland is a deficit area in the power balance during peak hours. The balance is expected to be met with import from neighbouring systems with no major difficulty.
The recovery after the economic crisis and the increase of demand has been faster and larger than expected. A few new power plants have been commissioned, which has increased the production capacity.
The power balance in Finland is estimated to be roughly the same as the actual situation last winter.
Norway
The main result of the assessment is that Norway is capable of using interconnectors, but probably with reduced trade capacity on NO1-SE, to support neighbouring countries with power during high load periods the coming winter. The low water level in the hydro reservoirs may have a negative impact on the power balance.
Sweden
All nuclear reactors are expected to be in operation after the beginning of December. The increase of maximum power with 300 MW in unit Oskarshamn 3 will not be realized until after the winter.
The forecasted maximum demand has increased by 1200 MW compared to last winter.
December 3, 2010

4. POWER BALANCE 2010-2011 Summary
The total Nordic power system is for the winter expected to have a positive power balance in peak hours, both in a normal and in a severe winter situation, given that production units are available. The transmission grids are expected to be intact, with exception of Konti-Skan, with possibility to transfer power to deficit areas although the trade capacity may be reduced to keep the transmission system within agreed limits for operational security. The situation is expected to be better compared to the actual situation last winter, even if the load is expected to be higher. All nuclear reactors in Sweden are expected to be in operation. The Storebælt connection is in service and Konti-Skan has reduced capacity until further notice.
Under severe conditions, 1 out of 10 winters:
Norway and Denmark have a positive power balance Norway 2100 MW, Denmark 100 MW
Finland and Sweden have a negative power balance Finland MW Sweden -200 MW
During high-price periods, the price elasticity of consumption might reduce the peak demand compared to the presented values. This will improve the power balance.
December 3, 2010