1. Forecasting and Operations CAISO Case
Guillermo Bautista, Ph.D.
Director, Market Analysis & Forecasting
Austin Electricity Conference
Texas, April 2018

2. California ISO Nonprofit public benefit corporation
Part of Western Electricity Coordinating Council
65,225 MW of power plant capacity
50,270 MW record peak demand (July 24, )
26,014 circuit-miles of transmission lines
Energy Imbalance Market: Facilitates integration of renewables
2030 State Policy Goals
-50% of load served by renewables
-Double energy efficiency existing buildings
-Greenhouse gas reductions to 40% below levels

3. Percentage of load served by wind/solar, total RPS and non-carbon resources
Daily
1-minute

4. Main operational challenge for integration of renewable is about ramps and flexibility
We are four years ahead of the original estimate !

5. Increasing levels of renewable curtailments vary by season and hydro conditions
2017 Curtailment Percentage
of Potential Production
Solar: 2.8%
Wind: 1.3%
Energy Production

6. A portfolio of solutions for a plethora of challenges
Flexible Resource Adequacy
Flexible Ramp Product procured through markets
Facilitate economical participation of renewables in the markets
Regional diversity and coordination (EIM market)
Requirements for regulation and operating reserves with renewables consideration
Load and renewables forecasting improvements
Ongoing exploration to day-ahead market changes (15-minute granularity and forecast uncertainty)

7. Forecasting Challenges
Impacts on grid operations
Impact of behind the meter
Need to account for forecast uncertainty
Forecast latency
Need for probabilistic forecast