1. Growth in electricity generation over time
Source: MED Energy Data File

2. Electricity generation (supply) and demand - annual percent change
Source: MED Energy Data File

3. Electricity demand forecasts - excludes losses and embedded generation
Source: The Electricity Commission, NZIER, Transpower, MED Energy Outlook to 2025, NZBCSD – Sustainable Energy Futures Project Stage 1

4. Electricity demand forecasts - estimated growth (annual percent change)
Source: The Electricity Commission, NZIER, Transpower, MED Energy Outlook to 2025, NZBCSD – Sustainable Energy Futures Project Stage 1

5. Planned and possible generation
Around 6,000 MW of generation capacity planned or possible to 2015.
Only around 1,500 – 2,200 MW is ‘economic’ (in terms of cost) under most scenarios

6. Likely new generation to 2015 - including a carbon charge
Around 2,200 MW of capacity (from the approx. 6,000 MW listed as planned or possible) is likely to come into the stack by Primarily small wind and geothermal in the short-term, given likely step in price from carbon charge.

7. Likely new generation to 2015 - excluding a carbon charge
Around 1,600 MW of capacity (from the approx. 6,000 MW listed as planned or possible) likely to come into the stack by Less small wind and geothermal plant commissioned than carbon charge inclusive scenario. Not necessarily less electricity generated, but different plant mix with higher output for thermal plants.