1. 2010 Work Plan Steering Committee January 29, 2010

2. 2 Major Tasks Benchmark Models Review Adequacy Methodology Assess Power Supply Adequacy Share Information Key Issues Key Decisions

3. January 29, 20103 Benchmark Models Verify Data –Resources (thermal, hydro, renewable, conservation, non-firm) –Loads (annual, monthly, hourly) –Out-of-region Firm Contracts Validate Models

4. January 29, 20104 Review Adequacy Methodology (Proposed Contract with PSRI) Survey use of probabilistic adequacy assessments in the US and in other countries Develop options for the NW power supply (including status quo - LOLP as currently defined) If appropriate, revise adequacy methodology Translate probabilistic adequacy measure(s) into deterministic metrics with associated minimum thresholds

5. January 29, 20105 Assess Power Supply Adequacy (Targeted to be Completed by June) 1.Update Resource and Load Data 2.Calculate Adequacy Measures Annual Load/Resource Balance January and July Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin 3.Check Measures against Thresholds 3 and 5 Years Out (2013 and 2015) 4.Take Appropriate Actions depending on Results

6. January 29, 20106 Share Information Publish annual adequacy assessment Compare results with other regional reports Work with regional utilities to incorporate adequacy assessments into their resource planning efforts Work with WECC and NERC to ensure that NW adequacy is properly treated in West- wide or nation-wide assessments

7. January 29, 20107 Key Issues Develop synthetic temperature-correlated wind data Define annual-energy and hourly-capacity wind factors Identify reserve requirements (including within-hour) and how to treat them for adequacy assessments Refine methods for assessing hydro sustained-peak capability Reassess the definition for the sustained peak period Explore how adequacy measures can be incorporated into long- term utility resource planning methods

8. January 29, 20108 Key Decisions Status of the Adequacy Forum Level of utility guidance from the Forum Definition and use of an “economic” adequacy measure