Tentative Ideas for Co-operation

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Presentation transcript:

Tentative Ideas for Co-operation From the perspective of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling Rob Maas, September 5, 2011, Geneva UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

Changing Context for EMEP and WGE EU-enlargement  future CLRTAP? Political relevance? Science dissemination towards Asia? Air & climate change  1 global atmosphere Climate neutral protocol - SCLF: ozone and black carbon Co-benefits of Climate Policy (health, vegetation) What about Nitrogen? Political climate  Low ambitions Trade-offs rather than idealistic targets Long term vision rather than short term action More research questions, but: political (mis-)use of scientific uncertainties How to educate the people? Dissimination science towards Asia? SLCF, cobenefits CC

Reorganisation 2000

EG Black Carbon

Current cooperation

Current Co-operation(2) State of the Art input WGE to CIAM/TFIAM Health impacts PM & Ozone Ecosystem impacts Acidification, Eutrophication & Ozone Ex-post analysis WGE of CIAM-assessments Review Biodiversity & Health indicators Ozone Flux: damage to Food & Carbon Sequestration Co-operation WGE-NEBEI Lost working hours, Materials damage, Crop loss

Ambition levels for Europe: trade-off between costs and impacts More N-reduction Less ozone-reduction

Revised results after scrutiny by parties Ambition levels for Europe: trade-off between costs and impacts

10

Valuation of Benefits Current distribution of monetized damage: Mortality ~ 67 % Morbidity ~ 32 % Crops ~ 0.8% Materials ~ 0.2% Ecosystem services 0 %  !!!

Future co-operation Joint WGE-TFIAM background document to the revised Gothenburg Protocol Sensitivity analysis of health assumptions (PM, O3) Valuation of Ecosystem services Combined impacts of air pollution and climate change  Hemispheric, role of Black Carbon & Nitrogen Long term ends (or trade-offs)?  2050 The Gridding Question  Are we moving beyond transboundary fluxes? Cities, Natura2000 areas? The environmental integrity of emission trading schemes? How to apply our knowledge to Asia?  specific projects? How to raise public awareness? …

Purpose Joint background report Background info to revised protocol Description of scenario assumptions Tables with data per country (obligations & expected impacts) Maps for Europe  where do we expect the benefits and remaining problems?  useful for review & implementation problems

Report contents Activity trends and future scenario 1990-2020 1. GDP 2. Energy 3. Transport 4. Agriculture Key measures Emissions (BL, Protocol, …, MTFR) Air quality and deposition Impacts 1. Yolls 2. Acidification 3. Eutrophication 4. Ozone deaths 5. Ozone damage to vegetation 6. Damage to materials 7. R-Forcing Costs and benefits Long term prospects

Time schedule TFIAM WGSR 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal May: Analyses of targets options Nov: Sensitivity analysis 2011 Jan/Feb: Scenario runs May: Final runs Dec: Report (with WGE) WGSR 2010 Apr: Baseline accepted Sept: Guidance on targets Dec(EB): Guidance on targets 2011 April: Ambition level Sept: Proposed Protocol Dec(EB): Final Protocol text