1. ECLAIRE: Effects of climate change on air pollution impacts and response strategies for European ecosystems

2. Effects of climate change on air pollution impacts CC effects on eutrophication: – Increased NH3 emissions > larger pressure on eutrophication – More local N dep CC effects on ozone: – Net effect unclear CC effects on biodiversity: – Additional stress factor, on top of excess N input – But, according to Max, CL become less sensitive – Regional? CC effects on forest growth (carbon sequestration) – CC +/- reduces forest growth (according to Wim) CC effects on crops – Land use patterns [CC on health: ]

3. Response strategies CC effects on eutrophication : – Increased NH3 emissions > larger pressure on eutrophication – Need for larger N reductions to compensate CC effects on ozone (vegetation): – Net effect unclear (?) – Ozone flux reductions require CH4 mitigation or lower hemispheric O3 – Higher N input can partly compensate negative impacts of O3, but beneficial effects of added N are lost at higher concentration CC effects on biodiversity: – Additional stress factor, on top of excess N input – CC will increase tolerance to N deposition – N reduction could compensate CC impact CC effects on forest growth (carbon sequestration) – Additional N can compensate negative climate effect (only in N Europe) CC effects on crops Additional N can compensate O3 damage [CC on health: ]

4. Effects of climate change on response strategies (measures) Impacts from CC: Increased biogenic emissions Increased NH3 emissions Hemispheric CH4 should be higher without a global mitigation strategy – thus higher background O3 and O3 fluxes in Europe (?) CC will lead to less O3 uptake in dry Europe and increase N and C uptake in wet Europe Impacts from CC mitigation strategies: Lower O3 fluxes (from less CH4) Unless specifically controlled, more anaerobic digestion could increase NH3 emissions Biomass/biofuel Trade-off for catlle feed measures

5. Role for Nitrogen in response strategies Carbon sequestration: – Higher N input can compensate negative impacts of climate change (for Scandinavia and near-term) Ozone: – Vegetation damage is mainly caused by CH4 (and hemispheric O3) – Higher N input can partly compensate negative impacts of O3, but beneficial effects of added N are lost at higher concentration Ecosystems services: – (Uncertain) Monetary benefits from ecosystems services do not justify most of remaining N controls, Biodiversity: – Excess N clearly threatens biodiversity – While WTP is not high enough to justify additional measures, protection is a legal obligation in N2000 – Costs of mitigation should be lower than avoided damage

6. Nitrogen management [offers an important opportunity]/[is an important adaptation measure] to ameliorate climate change impacts on ecosystems, with a wide array of co-benefits for other policy priorities. Climate change will increase the threat to (European) ecosystems (and crops?) (e.g., Biodiversity, forest growth/C sequestration) due to processes, larger biogenic emissions, increased vulnerability, etc. Although N impact mechanisms are complex (with + and -), overall, N management will result in beneficial outcomes (is this true?) Specific measures: – Nitrogen use efficiency (e.g., xxx) – Ozone – potential benefits from N management Important co-benefits on – Human health, economics/profits – Sustainable development goals Social/distributional aspects?

7. Sustainable development goals Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture ++ Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages ++ Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all + Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all + Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all ? Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation ?+ Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable + Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns + Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts* +? Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development ++ Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss ++ Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 17Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

8. Next steps Further work – CC impacts on HSI index critical loads - Max – Optimized ECLAIRE scenario compensating CC impacts (as much as represented by AAE) - Wilfried – Regional impacts – Gina – Species richness – Laurence – Impacts of land use change due to CC on crop benefits - Doan – Benefit analysis, compare additional costs in optimized ECLAIRE scenario over optimized health scenario with baseline CLE - Mike 1 page summary Background document