Forecast Verification time! 2 pm – 7:40 pm Wednesday 77 0.07” Mr. Perfect Forecast 77 YES 0.07” 10

What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather) CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS Average: 79 (72/71/77/77/?) Median Range 81 90 - 65 Standard Dev. +/- 8 RAIN Average: Range: % time: 0.16” 0-1.13” 53% (0.64”/0.67”/0.04”/0.28”/?) What is CLIMATE ?? (vs. weather)

De donde son ustedes? (Where are you from) Most interesting weather at your hometown?

SURFACE PRESSURE … corrected to sea level Wind flow crosses isobars at the ground due to friction force

Flow at 500mb (upper levels of troposphere ~ 5,500m, or 18,000 ft.) Flow at 500mb (upper levels of atm. ~ 5,500m, or 18,000 ft.) Wind flow nearly parallel to isobars in upper levels = minimal friction

Surface Weather Map (radar overlay)

Today at 11z (7 am) SL Pressure Winds H L

Today at 11z (7 am) Temps Dew Points

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

NAM Forecast – Surface Pressure New Model Run NAM Forecast – Surface Pressure This evening L

NAM MODEL - THIS EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) X

Yesterday’s Model Run NAM MODEL GFS MODEL LI LIFTED INDEX THURS EVE

New Model Run NAM MODEL GFS MODEL LI THURS PM LIFTED INDEX

NAM MODEL GFS MODEL THIS EVE Precipitable Water = If we “wrung” out all the moisture in the atmosphere, how much precipitation would we get?

SPC Forecast – Tomorrow (Thursday)

...Eastern States... An upper-level trough will move eastward from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys across the Southern and Central Appalachians into the Carolinas today. Ahead of the trough, a moist air mass will be in place with surface dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s creating a large corridor of moderate from the southern Appalachian foothills to the Atlantic coast. Thunderstorms should initiate just ahead of the shortwave trough in the southern Appalachians at midday with storms moving east to the foothills in the afternoon. Forecast soundings in northwest South Carolina and west-central North Carolina at 21Z show MLCAPE values reaching 2,000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear of 30-35 kt. This combined with veered southwesterly winds at the surface and westerly flow in the low to mid-levels will be favorable for quasi-linear development.

...Eastern States... As low-level lapse rates become steep in the afternoon, conditions will become favorable for wind damage along the leading edge of an MCS moving east from the southern Appalachians. For this reason, will upgrade to Enhanced risk for wind damage across parts of northern South Carolina, North Carolina and southern Virginia. Isolated large hail will also be possible with the stronger parts of the linear MCS. Further north into the Mid-Atlantic, instability is not forecast to be quite as strong as across the Carolinas. For that reason, the wind damage threat is expected to remain more isolated and will depend upon which areas destabilize the most. Wind damage would be the primary threat across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Model cloud product

Upper-level trough lingers …. Cool air aloft = Cu cloud maker NAM MODEL - FRI EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) L X Upper-level trough lingers …. Cool air aloft = Cu cloud maker Model cloud product

Upper-level trough departs …. NAM MODEL - SAT EVENING – Jet Stream (500mb) Upper-level trough departs …. Let the return! Model cloud product

Today’s Forecast ?

Penn State Weather Camps Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC – Radar - Radar - Radar sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 - EWALL

Surface Observations YYZ = Station 57 = 50 = 155 = Temp Dewpoint SL Pressure = Sky cover Station = Temp = Dewpoint = Pressure = PIT 66 65 1013.8mb = SSW 5 kts =Lt. Rain