1. CLIMO EXERCISE
LONG-TERM AVERAGES

2. NORMAL Mean: 80 Median: Range: 89-67 Std. dev. 6 Mean: 0.09” Median:
% time:
0.09”
0-0.54”
50%
NORMAL
Conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.

3. FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE = ?

4. FORECAST TECHNIQUES (TMP) CLIMO = 80F PERSISTENCE (YESTERDAY) = 74 MODIFIED PERSISTENCE …..

5. Modified Persistence
What causes temperature to change?
Sunshine?

6. WAYS EARTH
HEATS AIR?
SUN HEATS
GROUND

7. Modified Persistence What causes temperature to change? Sunshine?
Precipitation?
Wind?

8. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat IR – Sat V – Sat V – Sat WV - NWS - NHC – SPC – Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

9. STATION MODEL PLOT – SURFACE OBS
VALID: 10Z (6AM)

10. STATION MODEL PLOT – SURFACE OBS
VALID: 10Z (6AM)

11. SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

12. SURFACE PRESSURE

13. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector
MARITIME TROPICAL/CONTINENTAL TROPICAL
MARITIME POLAR/CONTINENTAL POLAR

16. NAM MODEL FCST – 4 panel map
Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY

17. NAM MODEL FCST – SFC
Valid at 2 p.m. (18z) TODAY ? PA

18. L H PA NAM MODEL FCST – 500 mb. Valid 2 P.M. (18z) TODAY Ridge Axis
Trough
Axis H

19. LIFTED INDEX
Valid 8 P.M. TODAY

20. MODEL PREDICTED RAIN THROUGH 00Z (8PM)
NAM
GFS

21. SURFACE PRESSURE ? ? ? ? ?

22. SURFACE PRESSURE

23. Warm Sector vs. Cool Sector

26. MOS – Model Output S …
Accu Friends
Wx Channel Friends
NWS Friends

29. Big Picture …. Then details 
Soundings ?
Model soundings
Other fun output
Meteograms

30. Big Picture …. Then details 
Temps + Clouds
Soundings – What are these?
Model soundings
Other fun output
Meteograms

31. Basic Forecast Guidelines
What causes rain?
Need clouds!
Will any ole cloud do?
Moisture
Bodies of water – Moisture content of air

32. Basic Forecast Guidelines
Extrapolation= Look upstream to see what’s coming!
Sat IR - Sat II - Sat VIS - Radar - sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

33. Basic Forecast Guidelines
The “Models”
What are they?
Lower Res. (GFS)
Higher Res. (GFS)
Higher Res. (NAM)
Higher Res. (HRRR)
MOS - Statistical guidance

34. Cloud top
Height ?
(50,000 ft. 20,000 ft.)
-15C
-10C
-15C

35. Know what to expect! = Climo.AH RH AL RL
Know what to expect! = Climo.