1. National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola
Special Briefing Update
Self introduction and introduction of topic.
11 AM CDT Friday 22 March 2013

2. This outlook is intended for interests across interior southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and the adjacent Gulf coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida

3. Current Situation Around 1006 AM this Friday Morning
A warm front is advancing from our southwest and will bring warm moist and unstable conditions to the Central Gulf Coast overnight and on Saturday.
Upper 40s-Upper 50s
60-70s

4. Today into This Evening Severe Storm Potential

5. Event Summary
A WARM FFRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. FROM SUNRISE UNTIL NOON ON SATURDAY...SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE WARM FRONT S FORECAST TO LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME UNSTABLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THAT IS FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON...ALL THREE FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
ON SATURDAY EVENING...A SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS STRONGER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVING OFF IN A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN THE LATE EVENING AND EAST OF DESTIN BY EARLY MONRING. THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PASSES WITH LOCALIZED BOW ECHOES WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND SHORT-LIVED RAPID SPIN-UP TORNADOES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH STORNGER STORMS THAT REPREATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

6. Projected Severe Weather Risk
Southeast Mississippi, South Alabama, Northwest Florida
for Friday 22 March
NOAA – NWS Forecast Office Mobile/Pensacola
High
Moderate
Not widespread
Slight
None
Straight Line Wind Damage
Tornadoes
Hail
Flash Flooding

8. Storms initiate mid morning but strongest of storms
should remain south of Highway 84 before late afternoon.
Flash-flooding could occur where strongest storms move
over same location

9. Squall Lines contain bow echoes and weaker
short-lived tornadoes!

10. Storms initiate mid morning but strongest of storms
should remain south of Highway 84 before late afternoon.

11. River Flooding Not Expected

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River Forecasts
(Rivers / Lakes)

15. No additional Webinar briefings scheduled for this event updates, watches, warnings and statements from NWS Mobile will follow as necessary to give additional information

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