3 November 2017 Fraserburgh and Peterhead to Aberdeen Strategic Transport Study: STAG Part 1 Plus Bob Nicol: Project Director David Murtagh: Project Manager

Presentation Introduction Data Analysis Option Package for Appraisal Traffic Modelling Economic Appraisal of Option Packages STAG Appraisal Phased delivery of Option Package Summary

Introduction The purpose of the study is to: Identify and examine the options for improving strategic transport connections between Fraserburgh, Peterhead, and Aberdeen incorporating the Energetica Corridor. The STAG Part 1 Study identified a range of road and rail based measures to be delivered as part of an Option Package to address the study aims. This STAG Part 1 Plus Study aimed to fully define what the road based interventions should be.

Introduction To provide a detailed Option Package, the following analysis and appraisal was undertaken: traffic and accident data analysis traffic modelling economic modelling STAG appraisal Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.

Data Analysis The data analysis helped shape the final Option Package. Key findings from the analysis of 2017 traffic data include: High volume of Heavy Goods Vehicles on A90(T) Annual Average Daily Traffic flow on the A90(T) in excess of that recommended for a single carriageway A90(T) Ellon Bypass A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness North of the Toll of Birness, on both the A90(T) and A952, traffic volumes within recommended limits for single carriageway

Data Analysis Key findings from the accident analysis include: Perception that study area has high levels of accident rates Higher number of accidents in study area Accident statistics show a majority of all accidents on the A90(T) and A952 attributed to poor driving conditions and slippery road surface North East Casualty Reduction Strategy Option Package measures will help reduce accident levels

Option Package Cortes junction upgrade Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention. Toll of Birness junction upgrade Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

Option Package Cortes junction upgrade A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention. Toll of Birness junction upgrade Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

Option Package Cortes junction upgrade A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention. Toll of Birness junction upgrade Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

Option Package Cortes junction upgrade A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention. Toll of Birness junction upgrade Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

A90(T)/A952 Toll of Birness Roundabout New 3 arm roundabout at the Toll of Birness 50m in diameter with 2 lanes circulatory and two lanes on all exits Reduces junction speeds and improves safety Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) from Ellon to the Toll of Birness Estimated Cost: £0.97m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T)/A952 Toll of Birness Grade Separated Junction New grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness Removes priority conflicts and improves safety Requires the A90(T) to be upgraded to dual carriageway, south of Toll of Birness Estimated Cost: £8.2m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T)/A952 Cortes Junction New 3 arm roundabout at the Cortes 45m diameter with two entry lanes Reduces junction speeds and improves safety Estimated Cost: £0.90m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T)/A948 Ellon Bypass Roundabouts Northern Roundabout (A90(T)/A948) Increase in size to 60m diameter Increase to two lanes on all entry and exit arms Additional northbound left filter lane Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) Ellon Bypass Estimated Cost: £1.4m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T)/B9005 Ellon Bypass Roundabout Southern Roundabout (A90(T)/B9005) Increase in size to 60m diameter Two lane northbound exit to Ellon Bypass Designed to tie into any future upgrade of the A90(T) Ellon Bypass Estimated Cost: £0.20m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

Overtaking Lanes on A90(T) and A952 Identification and improvements of overtaking sections Existing sections of two-way carriageway where alignment allows overtaking Identification of new overtaking lanes Two lanes in one direction to facilitate overtaking Estimated Cost per section: £1.2m to £3.6m (2017 prices with optimism bias) Route Action Plan should be developed for the A90(T) and A925 to facilitate delivery of improved overtaking opportunities

Safety Measures on A90(T) and A952 A range of safety measures have been identified: Right turn refuges on the A90(T) and A952 Accident reduction measures on the A90(T) and A952 Speed limit changes Skid-resistant surfaces Road realignment Improved signage, road markings, road barriers Route Action Plan should be developed for the A90(T) and A925 to deliver a full set of targeted safety improvements

A90(T) Ellon to the Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway 5km dual carriageway class road between Ellon and the Toll of Birness Designed to tie in with the junction proposals at A90(T)/A948 and Toll of Birness Estimated Cost: £19m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway Three possible A90(T) Ellon Bypass options have been proposed: Dual carriageway on the southern section (B9005 to River Ythan bridge). Estimated Cost: £6m (2017 prices with optimism bias) Dual carriageway on the southern and northern sections, narrowing to one lane for existing bridge Estimated Cost: £9m (2017 prices with optimism bias) Full length dual carriageway including widening of River Ythan bridge Estimated Cost: £18m (2017 prices with optimism bias)

A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway Three possible A90(T) Ellon Bypass upgrades have been proposed. Key environmental and physical constraints will impact on route upgrade Construction of full length dual carriageway can be phased Designed to tie in with junction proposals at the B9005 and A948

Option Package Summary Toll of Birness junction upgrades Cortes roundabout A90(T) and A952 targeted overtaking lanes and safety measures A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention. Improvements to A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts

Analysis of Option Package In order to ensure that the interventions in the Option Package met the study aims and their impacts were fully understood further analysis was undertaken: Traffic modelling Economic appraisal STAG appraisal Insert map here to show locations graphically. Detail of each option will be in upcoming slides specific to each intervention.

Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness Ellon to Toll of Birness S-Paramics Model

Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness The traffic model tested the following proposed infrastructure: Toll of Birness roundabout option Toll of Birness grade separated junction option A90(T)/A948 roundabout improvements A90(T)/B9005 roundabout improvements A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness dual carriageway A90(T) Ellon Bypass dual carriageway with narrow bridge The traffic model included the proposed 2012 Local Development Plan allocations, including significant proposals at: Ellon (>1000 houses, primary school, 30ha employment) Mintlaw (>1000 houses) The model simulates future traffic conditions if high levels of development are achieved

Traffic Modelling – Ellon and the Toll of Birness With no infrastructure improvements, large queues (>1km) form on the A952 southbound approach to the Toll of Birness Increase likelihood of accidents Vehicles will potentially take unsafe gaps onto high speed A90(T) and cross two lanes of traffic The model tested a roundabout and a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness Both junctions remove congestion and significantly reduce journey times Both junctions allow for safe movement of all vehicles Improvements at the Toll of Birness releases traffic southbound to Ellon and the model shows that junction improvements are required at both Ellon Bypass roundabouts

Traffic Modelling – Cortes Junction Cortes Junction S-Paramics Model Future year model representing high levels of traffic growth No issue with congestion Increased flows on A90(T) and A952 may increase likelihood of accidents The model tested a new roundabout at the junction The roundabout operates well and allows for the safe movement of all vehicles

Traffic Modelling Conclusions from the traffic modelling: Junction improvements at the Toll of Birness are required to reduce significant congestion on the A952 southbound if growth is realised Without improvements, vehicles may attempt to take unsafe gaps to enter the A90(T) The proposed roundabout and the grade separated junction perform similarly with comparable improvements to journey times and queue lengths Junction improvements at the Toll of Birness increase traffic reaching the A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts and any mitigation here should take account of this A new roundabout at Cortes junction operates well and does not increase congestion and removes conflicting turning movements

Economic Appraisal An economic appraisal exercise was undertaken using Transport Scotland’s Programme for Economic Assessment of Road Schemes (PEARS) The measures in the Option Package were combined to reflect the possible phased approach to road improvements: Test 1 – new roundabout at the Toll of Birness, improvements at A90(T) Ellon Bypass roundabouts Test 2a – as Test 1 with A90(T) dual carriageway between Ellon and the Toll of Birness Test 2b – as Test 2a but with a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness Tests 3-5 – as Tests 2a/2b with phased delivery of A90(T) Ellon Bypass dual carriageway To ensure robust outputs, the analysis was undertaken using high and low growth traffic growth assumptions

Economic Appraisal Key outcomes from the Economic Appraisal were: Test 1 (lowest cost test) can be considered the most economically viable due to the large journey time savings realised at relatively low cost The provision of a roundabout at Toll of Birness and associated improvements at the A90(T) Ellon Bypass junctions would provide economic benefit under both low (BCR 1.9) and high (BCR 56.2) growth scenarios as well as in current traffic conditions Under low growth assumptions, the provision of a grade separated junction at the Toll of Birness is not economically viable

Economic Appraisal Under high growth assumptions, all interventions can be considered economically viable, offering a return for investment and ensuring that there is sufficient capacity to accommodate high levels of development The outcomes support a phased approach to infrastructure provision

STAG Appraisal To finalise the study, a qualitative appraisal was undertaken of the fully phased Option Package against: The study Transport Planning Objective The STAG criteria The Risk Criteria – Feasibility, Affordability and Public Acceptability Established Policy Directives

Phased Delivery of Option Package The traffic and economic modelling suggest that phased delivery of the interventions in the Option Package would provide the most benefit. Total Estimated Cost of Option Package: £35m – £52m Short Term A90(T)/A952 the Toll of Birness roundabout A90(T)/A952 Cortes roundabout A90(T)/B9005 A90(T)/A948 Overtaking Lanes on A90(T) and A952 Safety Improvements on A90(T) and A952 Medium Term A90(T) Ellon to Toll of Birness Dual Carriageway Long Term A90(T) Ellon Bypass Dual Carriageway (three proposed options) Estimated Cost: £10m - £15m £19m £6m - £18m

Summary The STAG Part 1 Plus study has defined a road based Option Package to improve safety and connectivity between Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Aberdeen A comprehensive range of road based interventions can be designed to have their construction order phased so that: Low cost and low complexity schemes can provide significant initial benefit to all road users in the area Route Action Plans facilitate overtaking and road safety improvements As local development increases, further interventions to improve road safety and journey time reliability (such as upgrading to dual carriageway) can be introduced to accommodate any increase in traffic using the key strategic routes of the A90(T) and the A952