Comparative Emergency Management Session 9 Slide Deck Session 9
Session Objectives Provide a Detailed Definition and Description of Risk in the Context of the Emergency Management Profession. Provide a background on the various forms of consequences considered in a hazard risk assessment and analysis. Explain how Likelihood and Consequence may both be represented as either qualitative or quantitative values. Describe the Process by which Hazard Likelihood and Consequence are Analyzed. Explain how Individual Risks are Evaluated in a Standardized Format. Explore Examples of Risk Management in Practice Session 9
Risk Affects all people and all communities without exception, irrespective of geographic or socioeconomic limits Every economic, social, policy, or political action or choice made by government and its constituents, and the businesses that operate in those communities, involves specific, often unknown, factors of risk Risk is Individual and Collective Session 9
Risk Equation RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE Session 9
Consequence Factors Deaths / Fatalities (Human) Injuries (Human) Damages (cost, reported in currency, generally US dollars for international comparison) Session 9
Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event, such as the deaths and damage caused by the throwing down of buildings in an earthquake” (Smith, 1992) Examples: Fatalities, Injuries, Relocation Costs, Cleanup/Repair Costs Session 9
Indirect Losses May emerge much later and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event. Examples: Income Loss, Mental Illness, Loss of Institutional Knowledge Session 9
Tangible Losses Those for which a dollar value can be assigned. Examples: Response Costs, Repair Costs, Inventory Loss Session 9
Intangible Losses Cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms. Examples: Cultural Loss, Stress, Mental Illness, Aesthetic Loss Session 9
Quantitative Analysis of Risk Uses mathematical and/or statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk. Gives a specific data point (dollars, probability, frequency, or number of injuries/fatalities, for example) Session 9
Qualitative Analysis of Risk Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize the likelihood and consequences of risk. Allows each qualifier (word) to represent a range of possibilities. Session 9
Additional Consequence Measures Complexity or Difficulty Associated With Emergency Operations Disruptions to Lives and Livelihoods (Social Disruption) Disruption to economy Environmental impact Session 9
Depth of Analysis The amount of time and money available The seriousness of the risk The complexity of the risk Session 9
Full Damage Consequence Analysis Losses to Structures Losses to Contents Losses to Structure Use and Function and Cost of Displacement Session 9
Qualitative Example 1 Session 9
Qualitative Example 2 Session 9
Qualitative Example 3 Session 9
Risk Matrix Session 9
FEMA Risk Matrix Values Class A. High-risk condition with highest priority for mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action) Class B. Moderate to high risk condition with risk addressed by mitigation and contingency planning (prompt action) Class C. Risk condition sufficiently high to give consideration for further mitigation and planning (planned action) Class D. Low-risk condition with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature) Session 9
Risk Registers Name of Risk Qualitative Likelihood Value Qualitative Consequence Value Level of risk Priority Rating Additional Information as needed Session 9
SMAUG Methodology Seriousness Manageability Acceptability Urgency Growth Session 9
Australia / New Zealand Communicate and Consult Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Monitor and Review Session 9