1. Research Project Overview
Introduction to Homeland Security
Research Project Overview
Overview and Templates

2. Risk Three questions to ask when considering risk:
What can happen?
How likely is it? (probability)
What are the consequences?
Risk = the probability of occurrence x the consequences

3. Risk (cont.) Probability most difficult to determine
Often based more on expert judgment than concrete evidence
Can use historical data to calculate probability

4. Risk (cont.) Example of probability estimates
Certain: >99% chance of occurring in a given year (One or more occurrence a year)
Likely: 50-99% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 1 to 2 years)
Possible: 5-49% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 2 to 20 years)
Unlikely: 2-5% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 20 to 50 years)
Rare: 1-2% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 50 to 100 years)
Extremely Rare: <1% chance of occurring in a given year (One occurrence every 100 or more years)

5. Risk (cont.) Consequences: a measure of expected disaster impacts
Tangible – loss of life, property
Intangible – psychological impact, morale
Difficult to quantify
Once factors are determined, it is possible to compare risks
Risk matrix

6. Consequences Measure Tangible Losses Intangible Losses
Deaths
# of people
Loss of economically active individuals
Social & psych. effects on remaining community
Injuries
# & injury severity
Med. treatment needs, temp. loss of economic activity by productive individuals
Social & psych. Pain & recovery
Physical damage
Inventory of damaged elements by # & damage level
Replacement & repair cost
Cultural losses
Emergency operations
Value of manpower, person-days employed, equip. & resources expended to relief mobilization cost, investment in preparedness capability
Stress & overwork in relief participants
Disruption to economy
# of working days lost, volume of prod. lost
Value of lost production opportunities, & in competitiveness & reputation
Social disruption
Number of working days lost
Temp. housing, relief, & economic production
Psych., social contacts, cohesion, comm. morale
Environmental impact
Scale & severity
Cleanup costs, repair costs
Consequences of poorer environment, health risks, risk of future disaster

7. LIKELIHOOD (Probability)
Example Risk Matrix
1-20 = Low Risk
CONSEQUENCES
(NOTE: Below are only examples. You will have to determine the consequences particular to your site.)
21-40 = Moderate Risk 20
Insignificant damage to property & equipment, minor injury 40
Non-reportable injury, minor loss of process/
business, or slight damage to property 60
Reportable injury, moderate loss of process/ business, or limited damage to property 80
Major injury, single fatality, critical loss of process/ business, or damage to property
100
Multiple fatalities, catastrophic loss of process/ business, or loss of property
41-59 = High Risk
= Extremely High Risk
LIKELIHOOD (Probability)
Certain: >99%
(.99)
Likely: 50-99%
( )
30 – 59.4
Possible: 5-49%
( )
1 – 9.8
2 – 19.6
3 – 29.4
4 – 39.2
5 - 49
Unlikely: 2-5%
( )
.4 - 1
.8 - 2
2 - 5
Rare: 1-2%
( )
.6 – 1.2
.8 – 1.6
1 - 2
Extremely Rare: <1% (.009)
.18
.36
.54
.72
.99

8. CIKR Project Template The following is a suggested CIKR project format
Use the previous risk matrix to evaluate your site
Multiply the numbers in the parentheses in the Likelihood axis by the number in the Consequences axis
This will give you your overall risk

9. CIKR Description Template
Location
Map or maps?
Photos?
Description/Function
What does it do?
What is its function?
NOTE: Do not give a history of the site unless it is a necessary part of its description
Justification as a CIKR
Why is it important?

10. Hazard Evaluation Template (There should be one for each hazard that is evaluated )
Hazard (e.g. – 5.0/moderate earthquake, cat. 2 hurricane, power outage, etc.)
Likelihood
Value
Justification (how you arrived at the value)
Consequence
Description (what exactly could/might happen)
Total Risk Number
Ranking
__ out of __ (of all the risks you are evaluating)
Discussion/evaluation of mitigation/preparedness/ prevention efforts (if any)

11. Risk (cont.) Once risk is identified, how can it be mitigated?
Risk managers try to reduce either or both:
Probability
Consequence

12. Mitigation
Mitigation: a sustained action to reduce or eliminate risk to people & property from hazards & their effects
Mitigation activities address either or both components of risk
Probability (likelihood)
Consequence
Mitigating either one reduces the threat

13. Prevention Actions & Programs
Prevention: actions taken to avoid an incident or intervening to stop an incident from occurring, in an effort to save lives & property
National Response Framework (NRF) may be implemented for threats or potential incidents of national significance to prevent or intervene in order to lessen the impact of an incident

14. Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.)
Prevention activities may include:
Heightened inspections
Improved surveillance & security operations
Public health & agricultural surveillance & testing
Immunizations, isolation, or quarantine
Specific law enforcement operations aimed at deterring, preempting, interdicting, or disrupting illegal activity & apprehending potential perpetrators & bringing them to justice

15. Prevention Actions & Programs (cont.)
Most prevention activities are related to terrorism
As defined w/in the NRF, any activity that intends to prevent terrorist attacks can be qualified as a prevention measure

16. Preparedness
Preparedness: a state of readiness to respond to a disaster, crisis, or any other type of emergency situation
Preparedness activities can be categorized as the human component of hazard management
Most common:
Training
Public Education
They do little to prevent a disaster, but are very effective at ensuring that people know what to do once one has happened

17. Preparedness Actions & Programs
It includes those activities, programs, & systems that exist before an emergency that are used to support & enhance response to an emergency or disaster
Evacuation drills
First responder training

18. Preparedness (cont.) Important part of the EM cycle
Provides for the readiness & testing of all actions & plans prior to actual application in a real event or disaster
Close connection between mitigation & preparedness
Difference can sometimes be unclear
Preparedness is the planning for best response
Mitigation is all efforts to prevent or lessen the need for response