1. Session 011 Hazard Risk Management Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

2. Session 012 Stan Kaplan’s Theorems of Communication From the plenary Address at the 1996 Meeting Society for Risk Analysis Theorem 1: 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings. Theorem 2: The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning.

3. Session 013 Meanings of the word RISK RISK Colloquial Danger Venture Opportunity Technical Hazard Probability Consequence Insurance Chance Uncertainty Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”

4. Session 014 Etymology of ‘RISK’ The Arabic word risq - “anything that has been given to you [by God] and from which you draw profit.” The Latin word risicum - maritime term, described the scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent dangers posed by a barrier reef. From F. Wharton, “Risk Management: Basic Concepts and General Principles”

5. Session 015 RISK The product of a hazard’s likelihood of occurrence and its consequences to society. RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

6. Session 016 HAZARDS “Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss.” - FEMA, 1997 FEMA. 1997. Multi Hazard Identification and Assessment. FEMA. Washington, D.C.

7. Session 017 What makes something a hazard? If a storm occurs at sea, in an area of no shipping traffic and where there are no land masses, is it a hazard?

8. Session 018 DISASTER “A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources” - The United Nations, 1992 United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. (DNA/93/36). United Nations. Geneva.

9. Session 019 Is it a DISASTER? House fire in Newark, NJ - the house is destroyed, but there are no injuries. Brush fire in Arizona - results in the burning of 100,000 acres of unoccupied land, 5 firefighters need to be admitted to the hospital for various injuries. The fire is finally extinguished by members of more than 10 fire departments. The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 - the destruction included 28 miles of roads, 120 miles of sidewalk, 2000 lampposts, 18,000 buildings, totaling over $200 million in property damage (1/3 of the value of all property in the city at the time). 200-300 people died.

10. Session 0110 Terms Describing EVENTS Accidents Incidents Disturbances Emergencies Crises Tragedies Catastrophes Calamities Disasters

11. Session 0111 Sample Linear Taxonomy of ‘Event’ Terminology  An “Incident” is considered to be minor situation;  An “Emergency” a more serious situation;  A “Disaster” a yet more serious situation; and  A “Catastrophe” the most serious situation of all. Renee Pearce, L.D. 2000. An Integrated Approach For Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV. Excerpt, Doctoral Dissertation, University of British Columbia.

12. Session 0112 VULNERABILITY “The degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards.” - Emergency Management Australia, 2000 Emergency Management Australia. 2000. “Emergency Risk Management”

13. Session 0113 What is the difference? Preparedness – “Those activities, programs, and systems that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhance response to an emergency or disaster.” Mitigation – “Any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards.” Preparedness: FEMA. 1992. Federal Response Plan; With Revisions. FEMA. Mitigation: FEMA. 1999. The Professional in Emergency Management (IS-513). Emergency Management Institute. Emmitsburg, MD.

14. Session 0114 SAFE “A risk becomes safe, or acceptable, if it is associated with the best of the available alternatives, not with the best of the alternatives which we would hope to have available. Do you agree or disagree? Derby, S. L., and R. L. Keeney. 1981. “Risk Analysis: Understanding ‘How Safe is Safe Enough’”. Risk Analysis. 1:217-224.

15. Session 0115 How safe is safe enough? Zero risk per person? 1 in a million risk per person? 1 in 100,000 risk per person? 1 in 10,000 risk per person? IT DEPENDS!

16. Session 0116 Some Odds of Death HazardAnnual RiskLifetime Risk Car Accident1/18,7521/244 Accidental Fall1/20,7281/270 Accidental Poisoning1/22,3881/292 Murdered With a Gun1/25,1961/328 Hit by Car While Walking1/45,1171/588 Drowning (Accidental)1/77,3081/1,008 Fire/Smoke Inhalation1/81,4871/1,062 Lightning1/ 4,262,8131/55,578 Memmott, Mark. 2002. Fear may be overwhelming, but so are the odds. USA Today. October 18. p.6A

17. Session 0117 Probability  Classical: Probability of getting 2 heads in 3 flips of a coin  Subjective: Probability of Puerto Rico becoming a state in the next 20 years  Frequency: Probability of a person getting in a car accident while talking on their cell phone, over a 1- year period Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”

18. Session 0118 Hazard Risk Management Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Management

19. Session 0119 Disaster Management Cycle Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery

20. Session 0120 Disaster Resistant Communities Establish a Community Partnership Identify and Assess Community Risks Mitigation Generate Community Support

21. Session 0121 Sustainable Communities Disaster Resilience Development

22. Session 0122 Risk Perception Definition Perceived Risk Personal Experience

23. Session 0123 Risk Communication Technical Data Messages Community Partnerships Consensus Building