Where Has the World’s Population Increased? Ch. 2 Key Issue #2 Where Has the World’s Population Increased?

Why do populations rise and fall? Growth of world population is not a result of women having more children. Longer life expectancies to blame Lower fertility rates will stabilize population Hard to predict because it depends on child-bearing women Death rates Current trend: Aging populations of Japan, North America and Europe; declining TFR of in many MDCs

The Population Explosion 2,000 years ago: 250 million 1650: doubled to 500 million 1820: doubled to 1billion (175 years) 1930: doubled to 2 billion (110 years) 1975: doubled to 4 billion (45 years) 2020= 8 billion? Today: 54 year doubling time; 1.8 TFR

Population “J” Curve FIGURE 2-16

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Impact of the Industrial Revolution (19th Cent) Second Agricultural Revolution People had to be able to leave the farms to go work in factories Greater efficiency = Less people needed to work farms AND the food supply increased Industrial Rev- 19th Increased food supply (from 2nd Ag. Rev.) + medicine = extremely lower death rates Migration to industrialized cities (farm to factory)

Colonization leads to higher growth rates When Europe colonized Africa and Asia, they brought medicines and sanitation techniques that helped them increase their population (2nd Ag/Indust. Revs) by reducing the death rate By 1950’s, fear of overpopulation began when India, Africa and South America’s CDR declined (Medical Rev.) Europe and NA population was stabilizing and “others” were increasing Moving through different stages of the Demographic Transition

Natural Increase The % by which a population grows in a year CBR-CDR=NIR Does not account for immigration or emigration Higher urbanization leads to lower NIR increases People living in cities have less children Cultural traditions influence growth as well World NIR in 1963: 2.2; presently 1.2

FIGURE 2-9

Total Fertility Rate TFR- This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 6 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. 2.1 considered “replacement rate” Assumes that women in the future will have as many children as women today.

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Regional Differences Differences in fertility and mortality gives us a better view of where the population has increased. Correlation between high growth rates and low standing of women- why? Women in MDCs having less babies- why? Slowest growing countries are in the economic “core” Doubling time: MDC = 543; LDC = 40

What are the regional differences (differences between the regions)? What could be causing this difference?

India’s response to high TFRs Regional differences within the country Southern Indian women have higher literacy rates, land ownership, greater access to healthcare and birth control First country to use population planning program Forced sterilization of any man with 3+ children (22.5 million) Uttar Pradesh- “sterilization for guns” policy Housing and extra food for being sterilized

Mortality IMR- The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children. Insurance??? What could low IMR’s tell us about a country’s healthcare system?

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High mortality in the US Why does the US have higher IMR than Canada and all Western Europe? Answer: minorities in US have rates twice as high as the national average; poor people, esp. minorities, in US cannot afford healthcare for infants

Life Expectancy How long a baby can expect to live at birth. 80 in Western Europe, 50 in sub-Saharan Africa. Major contributor to world population growth

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Patterns MDC’s: LOWER NIR, CBR, TRF, IMR; HIGHER life expectancy, CDR LDC’s: HIGHER NIR, CBR, TRF, IMR; LOWER life expectancy , CDR Are more people really dying per year in the US than in Ethiopia and Mexico? Why?

Answer Yes! US has a higher elderly population. Countries are in various stages of the Demographic Transition. Therefore, CDR is NOT an indicator of development! Otherwise, the higher CDR for US would be mean we are less “developed” than Mexico or Ethiopia

Consequences of Aging Population Old people retire and suffer health problems that working people have to pay for (through taxes) Working population pays these taxes Dependency ratio is % of population less than 15 and older 65 This is who depends on working population for support BUT TFRs are falling everywhere on Earth People living longer + not having babies to replace = bad news! Why?

Future Population Growth How can worldwide population continue to increase when TFRs are declining and many countries are seeing population decreases? Growth in India, Bangladesh and other countries dwarf the declining numbers Not all countries will follow same pattern of growth as industrializing Europe did Waiting for countries to reach a Stationary Population Level (SPL)