Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist Marketing Update for 2014 and Beyond Ag Leader Technology Ames, Iowa Feb. 17, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 13,925 Beg. Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821 Imports 8 28 29 162 35 Total Supply 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,932 14,781 Feed & Residual 5,125 4,795 4,557 4,335 5,300 Ethanol 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,648 Food, Seed, & Other 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,396 1,400 Exports 1,980 1,834 1,543 731 1,600 Total Use 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,111 13,300 Ending Stocks 1,481 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.89 4.50 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.8 43.3 Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,034 3,289 Beg. Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 Imports 15 14 16 36 30 Total Supply 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,239 3,459 Crush 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,700 Seed & Residual 110 130 88 90 99 Exports 1,499 1,501 1,365 1,320 1,510 Total Use 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,099 3,309 Ending Stocks 150 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.40 12.70 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

Current Corn Futures 4.49 4.48 4.42 Source: CME Group, 2/14/2014

Current Soybean Futures 12.82 10.96 10.64 Source: CME Group, 2/14/2014

Corn Revenues vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS, Duffy

Soybean Revenues vs. Costs Sources: USDA-NASS, Duffy

Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond Supply/demand concerns Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA 2013/14 Futures (2/14/14) 2014/15 Corn $6.89 $4.50 $4.49 $4.42 Soybeans $14.40 $12.70 $12.82 $10.96

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 22 22

Arable Land

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/