Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist Ag Market Outlook Mar. 15, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1
Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 2 2
U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center
Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center
Source: USDA/AMS
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
Source: USDA/AMS
Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS
U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,390 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,127 Imports 32 67 57 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,947 16,567 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,473 5,550 5,475 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,575 5,650 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,450 1,470 1,495 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,900 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,820 14,520 Ending Stocks 2,047 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.35 3.40 Source: USDA 16 16
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,320 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 555 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,718 4,900 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,901 1,960 1,980 Seed & Residual 146 122 139 138 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,174 2,065 2,300 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,213 4,163 4,415 Ending Stocks 485 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.30 9.25 Source: USDA 17 17
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 18 18
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19
Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
Current Corn Futures 4.13 4.06 3.56 Source: CME Group, 3/15/2018
Current Soybean Futures 10.13 9.84 9.56 Source: CME Group, 3/15/2018
2018/19 Crop Margins
Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/