23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO Cigrés International Colloquium

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September The Key Drivers TOTAL COST OF ENERGY OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY CO2 EMISSIONS Security of supply Climate changeCompetitiveness Business as Usual is unsustainable SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September SECURITY OF SUPPLY Primary energy sources Adequacy of supply systems

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September More Energy EFFICIENCY is needed The Sleeping Giant ….

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Prices highly influenced by numerous factors (extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...) Productions growth might stop in years Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves Source: BGR TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas (2007) Source: BGR Prices linked to oil Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil) High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT) TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL Abundant and worldwide distributed According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030 But.... a major CO 2 emitter Proven reserves (10 biggest producers) Source: WEC, SER (2007) Relatively stable price Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September The traditional fossil energy resources are limited Alternatives are required ….

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World EUA: American Clean Energy And Security Act European Union: Energy and Climate Package G8, IEA Outlook, COP

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September « Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially..... What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution » World Energy Outlook International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September The New ENERGY PARADIGM Energy Efficiency Endogenous and Renewable Energy Sources and other Low-Carbon technologies

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Lighting Rail transport Heat Pumps PHEVHousehold Appliances Motor Systems Industry Demand Side LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE (electricity savings) MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY (more efficient processes; new uses)

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Towards low-carbon power generation and new technologies in electricity supply Supply Side Fossil Fuels Renewables Low-Carbon Tech.

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Sinergies + Security of Supply (less dependent on energy imports) + Environment Protection (less CO 2 emissions) Energy Efficiency (demand side) Renewable Power (supply side) Electricity + Sustainable Energy

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Key technologies: Hydro power Wind energy Biomass Solar thermal power Photovoltaic Renewable Power

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL Source: NASA Source: 3TIER SOLAR Power POTENTIAL In any given hour, more energy from the sun reaches Earth than is used by the whole human population in any given year 1070 * GW OF CAPACITY WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES 2007 – installed capacity * Including Large Hydro (830 MW)

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September WIND Power INTERMITENCY Intermitency Non-Dispatchable Power Need for STORAGE to: D ECOUPLE the L OAD (consumption) and the G ENERATION (renewable power) diagrams R EDUCE T HE R ISK OF L OSS of renewable resources

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Wind / Hydro complementarity 16.Dec MW 100 MW Wind Power declined from 600 MW ( during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines MW STORAGE - HYDRO Power

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars Low-Carbon Electricity replaces Fossil Fuels in the Transportation sector Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used Zero emissions at the point of use Simple, silent, and affordable to operate They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System Portugal

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September PORTUGAL A case of success 43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Wind PowerHydro PowerOther renewables Energy Efficiency Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020 Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%) Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement Implement the National Hydro Plan Promote a diversified policy on other RES 250 MW biomass 750 MW PV solar 250 MW wave 100 MW biogas Innovative policy on micro- generation (650 MW by 2015) Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015 Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps Energy efficient buildings policy National Plan for electric car roll out Complementary wind/hydro policy

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September PORTUGALS WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY Source: MEI

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975)

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September More RENEWABLE ENERGY Grid Expansion/Reinforcement Huge Investments New lines Reinforcement of existing lines; New substations (receiving wind) More transformation power More reactive energy compensation capacity Control and command equipment modernization In the future: One-way transmission systems (from power plants to consumers) or … a different model?

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September The new Grid model paves the way for the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-generation, …) and consumer side applications (demand response, home made energy, …) Source: Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europes Electricity Networks of the Future SMART GRIDS

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September SMART GRIDS BENEFITS New uses of the electric grid (operation and consumer side applications) More distributed generation can be integrated with the grid Mass-scale renewables integration Consumer incentive for efficiency Updating the way we get our electricity by staring to build a new SMART GRID that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy. U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September More SUSTAINABLE energy …... more GRID more RENEWABLE energy (increased operational flexibility) … more ELECTRICITY (in the global energy mix) …

Cigrés International Colloquium – Porto – 23 rd September Tomorrows Energy Todays Challenge