Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 2018/19 Ag Outlook: The Good, The Bad, & The Mildly Amusing Aug. 7, 2018 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 89.1 Yield (bu./acre) 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 174.0 Production (mil. bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,604 14,230 Beg. Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,027 Imports 32 67 57 40 50 Total Supply 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,937 16,307 Feed & Residual 5,280 5,120 5,470 5,450 5,425 Ethanol 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,600 5,625 Food, Seed, & Other 1,401 1,422 1,453 1,460 1,480 Exports 1,867 1,898 2,294 2,400 2,225 Total Use 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,910 14,755 Ending Stocks 1,552 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.40 3.80 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted (mil. acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.1 89.6 Yield (bu./acre) 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.1 48.5 Production (mil. bu.) 3,927 3,926 4,296 4,392 4,310 Beg. Stocks 92 191 197 302 465 Imports 33 24 22 25 Total Supply 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,715 4,800 Crush 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,030 2,045 Seed & Residual 146 122 136 135 Exports 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,085 2,040 Total Use 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,251 4,220 Ending Stocks 580 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 8.95 9.47 9.35 9.25 Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

Combined Corn & Soy Acres Top: 2018 Acreage Estimate Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 7 7

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

Ethanol Production Source: EIA

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

Current Corn Futures 4.14 3.88 Source: CME Group, 8/6/2018

Current Soybean Futures 9.15 8.85 Source: CME Group, 8/6/2018

2017/18 Crop Margins

2018/19 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/