Market Forces Affecting Distillers Grains 20th Annual Distillers Grains Symposium St. Louis, Missouri May 18, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Area Planted (mil. acres) 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 93.6 Yield (bu./acre) 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 168.0 Production (mil. bu.) 10,755 13,829 14,216 13,601 14,430 Beg. Stocks 989 821 1,232 1,731 1,803 Imports 160 36 32 55 40 Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15,387 16,273 Feed & Residual 4,315 5,040 5,324 5,250 5,550 Ethanol 4,641 5,124 5,200 5,300 Food, Seed, & Other 1,397 1,369 1,360 1,370 Exports 730 1,920 1,864 1,725 1,900 Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13,585 14,120 Ending Stocks 2,153 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.60 3.35 Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

Corn Prospective Plantings Top: 2016 Plantings Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Change in Planted Area Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME, as of 5/16/16

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Ethanol Stocks

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

U.S. DDG Supply and Use 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Production (mil. metric tons) 35.9 39.5 40.1 40.5 40.9 Imports 0.4 0.5 Total Supply 36.3 40.0 Domestic 28.1 28.0 29.0 26.5 Exports 8.2 12.0 11.5 14.3 Total Use Price ($ per ton) 257 205 154 133 Source: USDA-ERS 14 14

DDG Exports Source: USDA

DDG Exports to China Source: USDA

Current Corn Futures 3.92 3.78 3.71 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2016

2016/17 Crop Margins

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

ENSO Cycle Source: NOAA-CPC

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/