Crop Situation and Outlook Kim Anderson Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Agricultural Economist Kim.Anderson@okstate.edu 405.744.9817

Market Points Major commodity prices Wheat $5.05 $5.35 (‘19) Corn $3.60 Soybeans $7.75 Cotton $0.71 Sorghum $3.54 World grain stocks are near record highs Prices have cycles Relatively high prices will return they won’t last long.

World Wheat Production, Consumption? 6 5 7 3 1 8 2 4

World Corn Production, Consumption? U.S. 12.5 bb China 9.4 bb EU 2.9 bb Brazil 2.4 bb Mexico 0.7 bb India 1.0 bb Egypt 0.6 bb Japan 0.6 bb Canada 0.6 bb Vietnam 0.6 bb

19-Feb-19 Wheat

Hard Wheat Exports: 2018/19

U.S. Wheat Export Countries: 2017/18 (Million Bushels) US Rank Country U.S. World Percent World Rank 1 Mexico 112 193 58% 10 2 Japan 110 216 51% 8 3 Philippines 90 220 41% 7 4 S. Korea 53 157 34% 14 5 Indonesia 39 386 10% 6 Taiwan 37 49 76% Nigeria 36 191 19% 11 China 28 147 16 9 Iraq 25 151 16% 15 Thailand 24 118 21% 19 Colombia 72 33%

U.S. Wheat Export Countries: 2013-2017 (Million Bushels) US Rank Country U.S. World Percent World Rank 1 Mexico 118 180 65% 9-10 2 Japan 105 217 49% 5-8 3 Philippines 86 185 46% 8-7 4 Nigeria 63 172 37% 11-11 5 China 55 151 36% 14-16 6 Brazil 54 245 22% 4-4 7 S. Korea 48 159 30% 12-11 8 Taiwan 38 51 75% 36-16 9 Indonesia 34 335 10% 2-2 10 Colombia 27 70 39% 26-28 11 EU 26 206 13% 6-9 654, 954, 69%

Wheat 2.08 .866 $5.91 Year Protein Test Weight Production Use Ending Stocks U.S. Price Oklahoma Price Ok – U.S. Difference 2011 13.1% 61.5# 2.00 2.23 .743 $7.24 $ 7.05 $(0.19) 2012 12.3% 60.3# 2.25 2.41 .718 $7.77 $ 7.45 $(0.32) 2013 12.8% 59.7# 2.14 2.43 .590 $6.87 $ 6.99 $ 0.12 2014 14.2% 2.03 2.02 .752 $5.99 $ 6.34 $ 0.35 2015 12.6% 57.3# 2.06 1.95 .976 $4.89 $ 4.77 $(0.12) 2016 11.0% 61.2# 2.31 2.22 1.18 $3.89 $ 3.44 $(0.46) 2017 10.9% 60.5# 1.74 1.98 1.10 $4.73 $ 3.98 $(0.75) 2018 1.88 2.18 .935 $5.16 $ 5.34 $ 0.18 7-Year Average 2.08 .866 $5.91 $5.70 ($0.21)

Questions - Comments kim.anderson@okstate.edu

One last Observation Producers who have below average costs, above average yields, and above average quality will make a profit raising wheat.