1. The Future of Agriculture in Iowa
Ames Rotary
Ames, Iowa
April 5, 2010
Chad Hart
Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist 1

2. Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings
1st: Corn Production
Soybean Production
Field Crop Value
Egg Production
Hog Inventory
Hog Value on Farm
Commercial Hog Slaughter
Crop Harvested Area
2nd: Pig Crop
Red Meat Production
Total Crop Value
3rd: Number of Farms
4th: Net Farm Income
Alfalfa Hay Production
Steers – 500 Lbs. & Over
5th: Oat Production
Cattle & Calves on Feed
6th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over
7th: All Cattle & Calves
8th: All Hay Production
All Sheep & Lambs
10th: Land in Farms
Calf Crop
Turkeys Raised
Source: USDA-NASS

3. Iowa Farms and Farmland
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

4. Age and Farm Values
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

5. Iowa Hog Operations
Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

6. Crop Shifts
Source: USDA-NASS

7. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Feed Fuel Food 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
93.5
86.0
86.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
150.7
153.9
164.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,038
12,092
13,131
Beg. Stocks
1,304
1,624
1,673
Imports 20 14 10
Total Supply
14,362
13,729
14,814
Feed & Residual
5,913
5,246
5,550
Ethanol
3,049
3,677
4,300
Food, Seed, & Other
1,338
1,276
1,265
Exports
2,437
1,858
1,900
Total Use
12,737
12,056
13,015
Ending Stocks
1,799
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.20
4.06
3.60
Feed
Fuel
Food
USDA’s 2009 projections based on conditions around Jan. 1. It would be the largest corn crop, surpassing Demand is projected to recover across the board (higher feed, ethanol, and export demand), but we may want to watch feed demand as this increase is likely harvest loss (not feed use). Ethanol demand is about 100 million bushels above mandate levels. Export demand is being helped with some smaller customers buying early. Ending stocks are up with the record crop, but could decline with additional harvest losses. Current price estimate of $3.70/bushel is around market levels ($ ).
Source: USDA 7 7

8. Population 2008 2020 2050 (billion) World 6.678 7.601 9.393 China
2020
2050
(billion)
World
6.678
7.601
9.393
China
1.330
1.431
India
1.808
1.148
1.362
1.424
U.S.
0.304
0.336
0.420
Indonesia
0.238
0.268
Nigeria
0.357
Brazil
0.192
0.212
0.313
Pakistan
0.168
0.204
Bangladesh
0.280
0.154
0.190
0.278
Russia
0.141
0.184
0.228
0.138
0.132
Congo
0.189
Japan
0.127
Mexico
0.125
0.148
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,
International Data Base

9. (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
Liquid Fuel Usage
2006
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)
(Percent of 2006 Value)
United States
20.7
95%
98%
100%
105%
Canada
2.3
104%
109%
Mexico
2.1
71%
81%
90%
Europe
15.7
92%
96%
Japan
5.2
88%
China
7.2
118%
139%
168%
192%
213%
India
2.7
89%
115%
144%
159%
174%
Africa
3.0
117%
120%
123%
127%
130%
Central and South America
5.7
116%
119%
125%
133%
World
85.0
102%
107%
113%
Source: Energy Information Administration

10. Alternative Sources
Solar
Biomass
Wind 10

11. Source: Liebman

12. Biobased Pathways
Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

13. Source: ISU Extension

14. Source: Cassman, U. of Neb.

15. Source: ISU Extension

16. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: