LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016 Agenda Item 7.1 Labour market flows – Q2016 paper hannah.kiiver@ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Overview Demand for labour market flow breakdowns Sample size Age, education, duration of unemployment,… Sample size Weighting Flexibility Eurostat

Weighting and flexibility Current weights for flows derived from re-calibration on ILO status, by sex, 15-74 Further detail not possible, zeros in matrix already now Not possible to adapt re-weighting to breakdowns  No reconciliation stocks and flows

How to meet demand nevertheless? (Very) long run: improve sample size, provide matched micro-data with longitudinal weights For small countries, this may not be a solution Short run: use simple regressions to extract information Again, limits for small countries

Issues Modelling in general Which method, regression specification? modelling is already used, also in survey data replace descriptive statistics, no causality Which method, regression specification? simple model, use variables of interest for breakdowns logit, interaction terms, present predicted probabilities Use of weights in regression use of weights determined by available technical information and regressors results similar with and without use of weights

Alternative: predicted probabilities derived from regression results Simple logit applied to flows of interest Include interaction effects for variables to interest Evaluate marginal effects, derive predicted probabilities

Example: flow unemployment to employment, Spain, 2014Q2-Q3 Dependent variable = 1 if move from unemployment to employment Regressors: sex, age, age squared, unemployment duration, education and interaction terms age/age squared and unemployment duration

LAMAS is invited to: Take note of the developments in the field of labour market flows Rest assured that Eurostat will not publish official statistics based on experimental methodology without agreement of members of the LAMAS

LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016 Agenda Item 7.2 Main indicators hannah.kiiver@ec.europa.eu Eurostat

First publication First publication of seasonally adjusted LFS data on April 26 Complete revision of online database No break corrections so far, first other developments

Way forward Decouple monthly and quarterly unemployment Base long-term unemployment and unemployment ratios completely on quarterly LFS Separate seasonal adjustment of quarterly unemployment, better comparability and coherence of complete data set

LAMAS Working Group 29 June-1 July 2016 Agenda Item 7.3 Release calendar hannah.kiiver@ec.europa.eu frank.espelage@ec.europa.eu Eurostat

Release calendar Main indicators 14/07/2016 13/10/2016 (press release) 19/01/2017 second half of April 2017 (2016 results, min. 3 press releases) Flow statistics 26/08/2016 (pr) 25/11/2016 (pr) end of February 2017 (pr) end of May 2017 (pr)