1. Meeting Of The European Directors of Social Statistics
Common strategy on potential breaks in time series Item 4.1 of the draft agenda
Meeting Of The European Directors of Social Statistics
Luxembourg, 2-3 March 2017
Eurostat

2. Overview Background Current Eurostat proposal Way forward
Exchange of views form
DSS opinion
Eurostat

3. 1 - Background February 2016: first discussion in the DSS
April 2016: Written consultation of the DSS
October 2016:DSS agreement on developing a common strategy at European level limited to the LFS
Since then, discussion with:
Key users
LAMAS (December 2016)
EMCO IG (January 2017)

4. 2 – Current Eurostat proposal
Correction for breaks for "Europe 2020 indicators", "MIP", "Euro indicators/PEEIs", "Employment and Social Policy Indicators" and "Sustainable Development indicators" only
Minimum requirement on Member States - compulsory transmission of at least:
One factor for the impact of the break (quarterly – preferably Q2 or Q4 - or yearly)
For 20 series (indicators/breakdowns)

5. 2 – Current Eurostat proposal
Beyond minimum requirement, MS can transmit:
Two to six factors for the impact of the break (one annual factor plus 1-5 quarterly factors (impact of the break estimated on 1/2/3/4/5 quarters))
For more than the 20 series
Provide back-calculation from 2008
Eurostat to produce complementary information

6. 2 – Current Eurostat proposal
Several methodological approaches possible to estimate the impact of the break:
Run a parallel data collection
Run a pilot survey (with a reduced sample)
Build a model using external information
Combination of the previous 3 approaches

7. 2 – Current Eurostat proposal
Policy requirements for break-free time series
For the MIP and EU-2020 strategy
A total of twelve-year time series required
Data requirements for the EU-2020 strategy and MIP to be satisfied:
Till the 2019 exercise: old data series
For the 2020 exercise: old data series for the period and 2019 data forecasted accordingly
For the 2021 exercise: data collected for under IESS and data back-calculated

8. 2 – Potential breaks in time series
Reference year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Old series X
New series
(Y)* Y
Break-free time series needed :
For the EU 2020 strategy:
exercise
exercise
exercise
exercise  X  O O Z
For the MIP:
exercise
X : old series; Y: new series; Z: forecasted; O: back-calculation

9. 3 – Way forward
April 2017: proposal to LAMAS by one of the TFs (TF1) preparing the implemention of IESS for the LFS
May 2017: TF1 proposal checked, and reviewed if necessary, by a small group of non-TF1 members
June 2017: LAMAS proposal on the strategy
Autumn 2017: decision by DSS

10. 4 – Exchange of views forms
Time schedule too tight (2018 if IESS enters into force in 2019)
Too ambitious and resource demanding
Too many indicators (20)
Severe breaks in time series expected?
Financial support required

11. 4 – Exchange of views forms
Methodology to be used
Minimum set of factors (2 to 5 quarterly – 1 yearly)
Year of dissemination of new series (2021?)
Need for a common dissemination strategy for MUR

12. DSS is invited to give views on the Eurostat proposal
5 – Discussion
DSS is invited to give views on the Eurostat proposal