The Future of Agriculture in Iowa Ames Rotary Ames, Iowa April 5, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1

Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings 1st: Corn Production Soybean Production Field Crop Value Egg Production Hog Inventory Hog Value on Farm Commercial Hog Slaughter Crop Harvested Area 2nd: Pig Crop Red Meat Production Total Crop Value 3rd: Number of Farms 4th: Net Farm Income Alfalfa Hay Production Steers – 500 Lbs. & Over 5th: Oat Production Cattle & Calves on Feed 6th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over 7th: All Cattle & Calves 8th: All Hay Production All Sheep & Lambs 10th: Land in Farms Calf Crop Turkeys Raised Source: USDA-NASS

Iowa Farms and Farmland Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Age and Farm Values Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Iowa Hog Operations Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

U.S. Corn Supply and Use Feed Fuel Food 2007 2008 2009 Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.5 Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.9 Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,131 Beg. Stocks 1,304 1,624 1,673 Imports 20 14 10 Total Supply 14,362 13,729 14,814 Feed & Residual 5,913 5,246 5,550 Ethanol 3,049 3,677 4,300 Food, Seed, & Other 1,338 1,276 1,265 Exports 2,437 1,858 1,900 Total Use 12,737 12,056 13,015 Ending Stocks 1,799 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.60 Feed Fuel Food USDA’s 2009 projections based on conditions around Jan. 1. It would be the largest corn crop, surpassing 2007. Demand is projected to recover across the board (higher feed, ethanol, and export demand), but we may want to watch feed demand as this increase is likely harvest loss (not feed use). Ethanol demand is about 100 million bushels above mandate levels. Export demand is being helped with some smaller customers buying early. Ending stocks are up with the record crop, but could decline with additional harvest losses. Current price estimate of $3.70/bushel is around market levels ($3.65-3.70). Source: USDA 7 7

Population 2008 2020 2050 (billion) World 6.678 7.601 9.393 China   2020 2050 (billion) World 6.678 7.601 9.393 China 1.330 1.431 India 1.808 1.148 1.362 1.424 U.S. 0.304 0.336 0.420 Indonesia 0.238 0.268 Nigeria 0.357 Brazil 0.192 0.212 0.313 Pakistan 0.168 0.204 Bangladesh 0.280 0.154 0.190 0.278 Russia 0.141 0.184 0.228 0.138 0.132 Congo 0.189 Japan 0.127 Mexico 0.125 0.148 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) Liquid Fuel Usage 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2006 Value) United States 20.7 95% 98% 100% 105% Canada 2.3 104% 109% Mexico 2.1 71% 81% 90% Europe 15.7 92% 96% Japan 5.2 88% China 7.2 118% 139% 168% 192% 213% India 2.7 89% 115% 144% 159% 174% Africa 3.0 117% 120% 123% 127% 130% Central and South America 5.7 116% 119% 125% 133% World 85.0 102% 107% 113% Source: Energy Information Administration

Alternative Sources Solar Biomass Wind 10

Source: Liebman

Biobased Pathways Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

Source: ISU Extension

Source: Cassman, U. of Neb.

Source: ISU Extension

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/