Human Population Demography - the statistical study of populations Current Trends - birth rates have increased - death rates have decreased - % growth has decreased - fertility rate has decreased - 95% of growth taking place in developing world

World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed countries 11 10 All developing countries 24 8 Developing countries (w/o China) 27 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learnin China © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learnin 1.3 billion 1.4 billion India 1.1 billion 1.4 billion USA 294 million 349 million Indonesia 219 million 308 million Brazil 179 million 211 million Pakistan 159 million 229 million Russia 144 million 137 million Bangladesh 141 million 205 million Japan 128 million 121 million Nigeria 137 million 206 million 2004 2025

Birth Rates & Fertility Rates Decreasing due to: - less children needed for labor - urbanization - higher cost of raising children - higher education level - lower infant mortality rates - higher average age at marriage - better access to birth control - relaxed religious and cultural beliefs These factors are trending worldwide except in developing countries.

World 5 children per woman 2.8 Developed countries 2.5 1.6 Developing countries 6.5 3.1 Africa 6.6 5.1 Latin America 5.9 2.6 Asia 5.9 2.6 Oceania 3.8 2.1 North America 3.5 2.0 Europe 2.6 1.4 1950 2004

Death Rates Dropping due to: - better health care & nutrition causing: 1) higher life expectancy 2) lower infant mortality *These factors are trending worldwide except for developing countries. Example Avg. global life expectancy = 67 years Africa’s life expectancy = 55 years and falling

Population (2004) Population projected (2025) Infant mortality rate United States (highly developed) 294 million 179 million Brazil (moderately developed) 137 million Nigeria (less developed) Population projected (2025) 349 million 211 million 206 million Infant mortality rate 6.7 33 100 Life expectancy 77 years 71 years 52 years Fertility rate (TFR) 2.0 2.2 5.7 %Population under age 15 21% 30% 44% % Population over age 65 12% 6% 3% Per capita GNI PPP $36,110 $7,450 $800 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Studying Populations by Age Age Structure Diagrams - displays % of each age level in a population - uses 3 categories: pre-reproductive, reproductive, post reproductive - can help predict population growth - predicts future economic needs based on age Example - populations with a large % under 15 will begin to grow rapidly

Age Structure Diagrams

Controlling Population Growth Pros - Increase in population = increase in death rates - Example- Africa (poverty, disease) - Increase in population = increase in environmental damage Cons - violation of religious and cultural beliefs - population growth = economic growth - Example: - life expectancy is at its highest level - food supply is at its highest level

? Is Economic Development Reducing Birth Rates? Demographic Transition - hypothesis- as countries become industrialized their death rates and eventually birth rates drop. - occurs in 4 stages: 1) Pre-industrial Stage - high birth & death rate due to lack of technology 2) Transitional Stage - high birth rate, lower death rates due to more food 3) Industrial Stage - birth rate drops near death rate due to economic growth 4) Post Industrial Stage - birth rate equals death giving zero population growth

Relative population size Birth rate and death rate Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low High Relative population size (number per 1,000 per year) Birth rate and death rate 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Birth rate Death rate Total population Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative Growth rate over time

United States Historical Birth Rates 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Births per woman 2.1 2.0 1.5 Baby boom (1946-64) Replacement level 1.0 0.5 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year

Controlling Population Growth in India & China Why? 1) Increased poverty & malnutrition - 40% of India is malnourished - 50% of India is unemployed 2) Increased environmental damage - soil erosion, overgrazing, deforestation, 70% of water is polluted (India) How? 1) Use of economic rewards & penalties 2) Education on family planning methods

India China Percentage of world 17% population 20% Population 1.1 billion 1.3 billion Population (2025) (estimated) 1.4 billion 1.4 billion Illiteracy (%of adults) 47% 17% Population under age 15(%) 36% 22% Population growth rate (%) 1.7% 0.6% Total fertility rate 3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) Infant mortality rate 64 32 Life expectancy 62 years 71 years GDP PPP per capita $2,650 $4,520

Lessons on Human Population Growth - due to success in many Asian countries demographers believe growth can be slowed by: 1) Education (family planning) 2) Reducing poverty 3) Increasing women’s status

Essay Questions Why has China been more successful than India in reducing population growth? Identify at least 2 tactics used by each country in your explanation. Why are pest species likely to be r-selected species? Why are many endangered species likely to be k-selected species? Include at least 3 characteristics of each species in your explanation.