1. Human population change Chapter 8b Raven and berg 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b1

2. Finite space 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b [Earth,] A tiny raft in the enormous, empty night. - Archibald MacLeish (1970) 2

3. The Human Population Current world population as of Jan. 9, 2016 is: 7,297,700,000 (per Population Connection) Demography: science of human population structure and growth. http://www.prb.org/pdf15/2015-world-population-data- sheet_eng.pdf 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b3

4. Data Sites http://www.prb.org http://www.prb.org/pdf15/2015-world- population-data-sheet_eng.pdf http://www.prb.org/pdf15/2015-world- population-data-sheet_eng.pdf http://www.populationconnection.org/ http://www.census.gov https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the- world-factbook/ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the- world-factbook/ http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.G ROW http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.G ROW 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b4

5. Where the growth comes from Current Population Numbers Rapid growth primarily due to drop in death rates 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b5

6. Thomas Malthus British economist (1766- 1834) Populations were increasing faster than food production Could not be sustained Didn’t foresee the advent (arrival) of the Industrial Revolution 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b6

7. Population growth 1 billion – about the year 1800 2 billion – 1930 3 billion – 1960 4 billion – 1975 5 billion – 1987 6 billion – 1999 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b7

8. Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 years (1930) 30 years (1960) 15 years (1975) 12 years (1987) 12 years (1999) 12 years (2011} 14 years (2027) 21 years (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. World Population Growth, in Billions Agricultural Revolution: 10,000 BC Industrial Revolution: 1800 AD Baby Boom: 1946 - 1964

9. How Much is a Billion? 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes 1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days 1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years _________________________________________ 1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds 1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban) 1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles) 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b9

10. A.D. 2000 A.D. 1000 A.D. 1 1000 B.C. 2000 B.C. 3000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 5000 B.C. 6000 B.C. 7000 B.C. 1+ million years 8 7 6 5 2 1 4 3 Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague 9 10 11 12 A.D. 3000 A.D. 4000 A.D. 5000 1800 1900 1950 1975 2000 2100 Future Billions Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). World Population Growth Through History

11. Total Fertility Rate The average number of children a woman can have in her lifetime 2.1 replacement rate 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b11

12. Top 10 Most Populous countries 1. China1,367,485,388 6. Pakistan199,085,847 2. India1,251,695,584 7. Nigeria181,562,056 3. United States321,368,864 8. Bangladesh168,957,745 4. Indonesia255,993,674 9. Russia142,423,773 5. Brazil204,259,812 10. Japan126,919,659 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b12

13. density of Countries 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b13

14. Decreasing growth rate From a peak of 2.2% (1964 – end of the Baby Boom) to 1.13% per year in 2016 Mexico example – r = 26/1000 – 5/1000 = 0.026 – 0.005 = 0.021/100 = 2.1% per year Absolute numbers are increasing due to sheer volume of people of reproductive age – Baby Boom echo 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b14

15. Projected growth Population rate was 1.13% per year in 2015 Population will top out at 9 billion in the year 2050 Zero population growth – When the birth rate equals the death rate 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b15

16. Zero population growth Projecting Future Population Numbers – When will zero population growth occur? 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b16

17. World Population Growth rate and Absolute Growth 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b17

18. Doubling time The amount of time it would take for a population to double in size (t d ) t d = 70%/r – Called the Rule of 70 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b18

19. Doubling time example How many years would it take for the population of Guatemala to double in size at the 2007 growth rate? – Needed information: Current population: 13.4 million (13,400,000) Birth rate (b): 34 (per 1000 people) Death rate (d): 6 (per 1000 people) Growth rate (r): r = b – d (natural increase) t d = 70%/r 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b19

20. Doubling time example  Calculations:  Growth rate (r) = 34/1000 – 6/1000 or 34 - 6 1000 = 0.034 – 0.006 = 0.028 (x 100 = 2.8%) t d = 70%/r = 0.7/0.028 = 25 years – At the current growth rate of 2.8% it will take the population of Guatemala 25 years to double in size. 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b20

21. Developed vs. Developing countries (table 8.2) 2004 Population DataUnited States (Highly Developed) Brazil (Moderately Dev.) Ethiopia (Less Developed) Fertility rate2.02.25.9 Projected population change 2004-2050* +43%+24%+139% Infant mortality rate6.7 per 100033 per 1000105 per 1000 Life expectancy at birth77 years71 years46 years Per capita GNI PPP**$36,110$7,450$780 Women using modern contraception 72%70%6% 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b *Includes fertility, mortality, and migration estimates **GNI PPP = gross national income in purchasing power parity (at 2002 US dollars) 21

22. 08_15.JPG

23. Demographic Stages  Pre-industrial Stage  Birth and death rates high, modest population growth  Transitional Stage  Lowered death rate, rapid population growth  Industrial Stage  Birth rate decline, population growth slow  Post Industrial Stage  Low birth and death rates, population growth very slow 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b23

24. Demographic Transition Comparisons 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b24

25. Age structure pyramids 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b Each row covers 5 years (e.g. 10 year olds – 14 year olds) Males are on one side and females on the other Percent or numbers of population on the bottom 3 basic types of pyramids 25

26. Age Structure Diagrams 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b26

27. Demographic example Nigeria – What affect will this have on Nigeria’s future? 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b27

28. Demographic example United States – What affect will this have on the United States’ future? 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b28

29. Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b29

30. Demographic example Germany – What affect will this have on Germany’s future? 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b30

31. Age structure pyramid of Germany 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b31

32. Population Under Age 15 30% of the human population is under age 15 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b32

33. Aging population Strain on retirement programs (e.g. pensions) Health problems Less workforce 1/9/2016O'Connell: Human Population 8b33

34. A country is OVERPOPULATED if:A country is OVERPOPULATED if: –If the population cannot be sustainably supported People overpopulationPeople overpopulation – environment is harmed because of too many people Consumption overpopulationConsumption overpopulation – environment is harmed from too much consumption Numbers vs Consumption

35. I. Population and the environment A. IPAT model- measures humans’ total impact (I) on the environment I = P x A x T P = population A = affluence T = technology 1. Increase in any factor increases the environmental impacts. 2. Impacts to env. are generally pollution and resource consumption.

36. Environmental Impact 2/10/201636 Fig. 1-11 p. 13