Student Population in Texas Texas Commission on Public School Finance January 23, 2018 Austin, Texas

Key points Texas is growing fast and by a lot, 50% from natural increase. Urban core and suburban ring counties growing most. Many rural counties continue to lose population. Population growth driven by younger Latinos. Children in poverty most substantial in the urban core counties and in the lower RGV. Percent children in poverty greatest in lower RGV. Children in who do not speak English at home most substantial in urban core counties and lower RGV. Percent children who do not speak English at home greatest in lower RGV. Substantial divide between Hispanics and other race/ethnic groups in educational attainment and income. Trends in educational attainment suggest increasing percent of labor force aged population has post-secondary education.

Growing States, 2010-2017 Texas 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,159,035 12.6% 2010 Census Population 2017 Population Numeric Change 2010-2017 Percent United States 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,973,640 5.5% Texas 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,159,035 12.6% California 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,697 6.1% Florida 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,183,090 11.6% Georgia 9,687,653 10,429,379 741,726 7.7% North Carolina 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,936 Washington 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,203 10.1% Arizona 6,392,017 7,016,270 624,253 9.8% Colorado 5,029,196 5,607,154 577,958 11.5% Texas is the second largest state in term s of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2010 and 2017. The pace of (percent) change of Texas exceeds that of other large states. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.

Estimates of percent components of population change, Texas, 2011-2017 Natural increase has been in the range of half of population change since the last Census in Texas. Thus Texas is growing quickly and substantially from having more births than deaths over time. In recent years the number and percent of new Texas from other states has decline and the number and percent of international migrants has increased. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage population estimates

Domestic net-migration, Texas, Florida, California, 2011-2017 Domestic migration to Texas this decade was highest in 2015. in recent years, domestic net-migration to Texas has slowed and the number of domestic migrants net to Florida has exceeded Texas. California has had net out domestic migration for each year of this decade. Many of the California out-migrants are moving to Texas. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Population change over the decade has been greatest in the urban and suburban population triangle counties. Counties in the lower Rio Grande Valley also had significant growth as did El Paso. Overall, 158 counties gained population while 96 (38%) lost population over the decade. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016 County U.S. Rank Population Change Population Change Percent of Change from Natural Increase Percent Change from Domestic Migration Percent Change from International Migration Harris 2 56,587 79.9% -27.9% 48.1% Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9% Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1% Dallas 9 29,209 -20.9% 41.0% Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0% Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8% Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5% Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5% Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6% Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0% Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% -33.4% 19.9% Hidalgo County had negative net migration (-13.5% of total population growth). Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates Core urban counties of Dallas and Harris population growth was driven by natural increase (more births than deaths). Both of these counties had net out domestic migration. We think that many of these migrants may be moving to suburban ring counties. Both of these counties had substantial net-in international migrants that offset the net-out domestic migration. One result of this trend is may suggest increasing numbers of households that do not speak in English in these counties may increase faster than in counties with fewer foreign born.

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014 This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend. Note the relative width of bars by race/ethnicity and sex. There are more Hispanics at younger ages than any other one race/ethnic group. In Texas, Hispanics are entering into the labor force more quickly and substantially than any other race ethnic group, and the number and percentages of Hispanics in our labor force will increase steadily. This may present challenges for developing a more skilled and educated labor force given the current educational attainment differential between Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites. Ensuring that a higher percentage of Latinos finish high school and gain, minimally, some post secondary education or training will be essential for Texas to maintain or further develop a skilled labor force. Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

Estimated Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010 through 2016 The population of children aged less that 20 years has been increasing steadily since the last census. Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates

Estimated number of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012-2016 The number of children living in poverty is higher in the more urbanized areas of the State. Dallas and Harris Counties lead the state in having the most children living below poverty. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

Estimated percent of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012-2016 Percent of children living below poverty illustrates a different perspective than the number of children living below poverty. Counties along the lower Rio Grande river have the highest percent of children in poverty. We also see that many more rural or less urbanized counties have higher percentages of children living in poverty. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

Estimated number of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 The numbers of children who live in homes that do not speak English is highest in the urban core counties and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

Estimated percent of children ages 5-17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012-2016 The concentration or percent of children who live in homes that do not speak English is highest along the Rio Grande River and far west Texas. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2012-2016

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 According to the most recent projection (2010-2015) Texas will add 10 million new residents over the 2010 census by 2030. The bulk of these new residents will be children and from Hispanic families. Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 Population projections for children 0-18 years of age by race and ethnicity suggest that Latino’s are and will increasingly be the largest race/ethnic group. The number and percent of children who are non-Hispanic white are likely to decline. Non-Hispanic other are largely of Asian descent and they appear to be increasing rapidly, although the base number is small. Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections

Projected change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 Most of the projected growth in the number of children is expected to be in the urban core and suburban ring counties of the population triangle. The lower RGV counties and the urban counties out west will also see growth in the numbers of children. There are numerous counties, most being largely rural counties, that are projected to have fewer children in the future. Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

Projected percent change in total population aged 0-18 years, Texas counties, 2010-2030 The most rapid (percent change) of the child population in Texas will likely be in the suburban ring counties of Dallas and Houston and San Antonio/Austin. Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.

Projected population and population change for persons aged 0-18 years, 2010-2030 for Texas counties by metro status Total Metro Metro 1 million or more Metro less than 1 million Nonmetro Nonmetro adjacent to metro Nonmetro not adjacent to metro Projected Numeric Change 2010-2030 2,184,778 2,066,849 1,599,918 466,931 117,929 91,145 26,784 NH White (24,243) (13,261) (5,787) (7,474) (10,982) (11,006) 24 Black 95,170 100,349 95,110 5,239 (5,179) (3,632) (1,547) Hispanic 1,745,883 1,624,210 1,201,130 423,080 121,673 95,098 26,575 Other 367,968 355,551 309,465 46,086 12,417 10,685 1,732 Projected Percent Change 2010-2030 30.2% 32.0% 34.1% 26.4% 14.9% 15.1% 14.3% -1.0% -0.6% -0.4% -1.5% -3.0% -4.0% 0.0% 11.1% 12.5% 3.8% -8.7% -7.5% -14.2% 50.1% 51.7% 58.3% 39.1% 35.3% 36.0% 32.9% 84.6% 86.0% 87.2% 79.1% 57.6% 63.8% 35.9% Number of Counties 254 82 35 47 172 84 88 This table demonstrates that most of the population change (95%) in Texas’s population of persons aged 0-18 will in metro areas by 2030. About 80% of the population change of persons aged 0-18 will be from Hispanic descent in 2030 and 93% of Hispanic children will live in metro areas. Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario. U.S. Department of Agriculture 2013 Rural Urban Continuum Codes

Projected Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 The projected number of children by race and ethnicity suggests that Hispanics are and will continue to drive increases in population among youth in Texas. Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Projected Percent of Population of Persons Aged 0-18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010-2050 The child aged population in Texas will increasingly be Hispanic and the percent that are non-Hispanic white will decrease over time. Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015 There is a substantial differential in education attainment between adult non-Hispanic whites (almost 70% with post secondary education) and adult Hispanics (almost 36% with post secondary education). Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Sample, 2015

Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015 Educational attainment has been improving in Texas. In 2008 54.2% of adults had some post secondary education or more and by 2015 that percentage was 57.1. Some of this is the result of trends in Texan educational attainment and some is the result of more highly education persons moving to Texas from other states and countries. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Samples, 2008-2015

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Contact State Demographer Office: (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu Internet: Demographics.Texas.gov Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. @TexasDemography The Texas Demographic Center is committed to providing the best, most accurate, and objective information available about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.