Chapter 7 The Human Population China: Population- 1.3 Billion people 20% of world population Creates largest amount of CO2 & SO2 One child policy- fertility rate is 1.6/female. This has been lifted as 2016. Chapter 7 The Human Population

Current World Population http://www.census.gov/popclock/

By 2100- ~10.5 Billion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcSX4ytEfcE

Scientists Disagree on Earth’s Carrying Capacity Thomas Malthus 1798 - HUMAN POPULATION size will eventually exceed food supply. Population is growing exponentially while food supply is growing linearly. Many scientists support this view. → The following graphs show theoretical models of food supply and population size. Other scientists believe technological advances will help us feed the growing population. →

Demography the study of human populations and population trends. Focuses on: Fertility and Mortality Migration

http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/other-shows/videos/powering-the-future-population-growth/

The 12 Most Populous Countries in the World

Developed vs Developing Countries Developed countries- high levels of industrialization and income. Developing countries- low levels of industrialization and income of less that $3 per person per day.

Human Population Dynamics There are just three sources of change in population size — Fertility Mortality Migration Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

Population Growth

Rates of Global Pop. Change CBR (Crude Birth rate) = # births / 1000 CDR (Crude Death rate) = # deaths /1000 Net Annual Growth rate (r)= (b + i) – (d + e)/total population x 100

Rule of 70 Used to calculate doubling time. 70 / % growth rate Example: Country Z’s current growth rate is 2.1%. 70/2.1= 33 years for population to double.

Human Population Dynamics Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The average number of children born to a woman Average in developed countries = 2.1 Average in developing countries = 3.8 Replacement Fertility Rate (RFR) The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves

Life Expectancy Higher in developed countries. Females have higher L.E. than males. U.S. Males- 76, Females 81. http://www.prb.org/DataFinder/Topic/Rankings.aspx?ind=6

Mortality- Infant & Child Infant- less than 1 year old Child- 1 yr- 5 yrs If country has low infant/child mortality it indicates they have a medical available, potable water, sanitation systems, etc. * Socioeconomic status still plays a role in the variation of mortality rates in developed countries.

U.S. Growth Rate Increased from 1900s-2006: population went from 76 mil to 300+ mil Baby boom (1946-1964): high TFR: 3.6 children/woman Projected population for 2100: 571 mil. ENORMOUS IMPACT on ENVIRONMENT!

Population in millions US PROJECTED POPULATION 600 Figure 10-9 Page 180 571 500 400 Population in millions 292 300 Total population 200 76 100 Projections 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year US PROJECTED POPULATION

Factors Impacting Birth Rates 1. Children used as source of labor 2. Cost of raising and educating child 3. Religious beliefs 4. Availability of birth control

Factors Impacting Death Rates 1. Improved medical treatments has increased life expectancies in developed countries. 2. Developing countries: disease (AFRICA- HIV and AIDS related illnesses) Lesotho, Africa- HIV infections= 23% Life expectancy: 63 yrs (1995) TO 40 yrs (1990)

The Impact of Affluence The IPAT equation: Impact= Population X Affluence X Technology GDP is made up of consumer spending, investments, government spending, and exports minus imports. A countries GDP often correlates with its pollution levels. Ex: CHINA

Ecological Footprints Affluence - having a lot of wealth such as money, goods, or property.

Demographic Transition Model Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically. Predictable change. Focuses on birth and death rates as society changes.

Pre-industrial: little growth or no growth. Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate Ex: Japan, Russia standard of living rises; growth rate declines. STEADY STATE. U.S., Canada low death rates; high birth rates; growth rate rises. Ex: India Pre-industrial: little growth or no growth. Lesotho, Africa Stages 2 and 3- improved healthcare, sanitation, education

Population Pyramid & Demographic Transition Model Triangle shape, high CBR, and low Life expectancy Note the wide base; short Life expectancy (LE), concave profile Note the rocket shape appearance Note the vase shaped profile; STABLE, High L.E.

Population Pyramids (Population Age Structure Diagrams) Bar graph that shows the age and gender composition of a region. Population Momentum- once a country takes action to reduce births it takes TIME for those actions to catch up with current population. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLmKfXwWQtE

Population Pyramid Horizontal axis (X): gender male: left-hand female: right-hand Vertical axis (Y): age 5-year or 10-year age groups

Age Structure Diagrams/Histograms Positive Growth Zero Growth Negative Growth Pyramid Shape Rectangular shaped Inverted Slow growth U.S., Mexico, Canada Large # in post-reproductive age; Ex: Japan, Germany Large # of people in child bearing ages; developing countries Ex: India, Kenya ZPG, low birth rates, Long life expectancy, Ex: Hungary, Poland

Population Pyramid & Demographic Transition Model Triangle shape, high CBR, and low Life expectancy Note the wide base; short Life expectancy (LE), concave profile Note the rocket shape appearance Note the vase shaped profile; STABLE, High L.E.

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Urban area= more than a 1,000 people/sq mile

Effects of Population Decline As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins to decline. 60+ population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume: more medical care Social Security costly public services Labor shortages require automation & immigration

What Is Family Planning? Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire) - Goals of Family Planning: For couples to have healthy children For couples to be able to care for their children For couples to have the number of children that they want

Rewards and Penalties to Reduce Births What might work: encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families don’t penalize for already existing larger family increase poor family’s economic status

Empowering Women to Reduce Births Women tend to have fewer, and healthier children when: they have access to education and paying jobs outside home their society doesn’t suppress women’s rights But women do most of the work not shown in GDP because of lower pay Women excluded from economic and political decision making

Case Studies - India Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential. Disappointing results due to: poor planning bureaucratic inefficiency low status of women extreme poverty lack of administrative & financial support

Case Studies - China Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict: postpone childbearing only one child/family -->benefits (money, food, etc) effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would mean disaster Gov’t provides contraceptives