Achievable savings in the medium to long term B .Lapillonne Enerdata WORKSHOP 4.1 Low and very Low energy consuming buildings ROME, 1st- 2nd October 2008 ISIS Rome Achievable savings in the medium to long term B .Lapillonne Enerdata

Consensus on the existence of a large energy efficiency potentials but divergence on what is achievable Energy efficiency potentials always seen as large … by experts, not only from a technical point view but also from an economic view point Leading to more and more ambitious official targets of improvement… Tapping the potential is very slow, as can be seen from present trends , ... Although a lot of policy measures have bee implemented for the last 30 years What went wrong? What is achievable in the medium to long term.

Retrofitting packages 1a/1b/1c" 150/80/60 kWh/m2 Energy efficiency potentials always seen as large: case of existing dwellings? Different retrofitting packages to raise efficiency (e.g. insulation) 1c (or 1b) may not be cost effective depending on price, costs, payback Not all what is cost effective is feasible (“split incentives” between owners/occupants) New House 60 kWh/m2 Existing dwelling 250 kWh/m2 1a 1b 2 1c Retrofitting packages 1a/1b/1c" 150/80/60 kWh/m2 Adapted from W Eichhammer Frauhofer-ISI

Energy efficiency potentials always seen as large: case of new dwellings? (1/2)

Energy efficiency potentials always seen as large: case of new dwellings (2/2)

( Grenelle de l’Environnement; 2007-2008) More and more ambitious official targets of improvement: case of official target of France in the building sector ( Grenelle de l’Environnement; 2007-2008) Overall target : reduce by 38% the energy consumption in 2020 Program for new buildings : In 2010 : 50 kWh/m2.year for all public and tertiary buildings In 2012 : 50 kWh/m2.year for all buildings (adjusted to the geography and latitude) In 2020 : all new buildings should be passive buildings (< 15 kWh/m2.year) or positive energy ones Existing buildings: large thermal retrofitting program Energy improvement for every private housing property transfer and study for a retrofitting obligation (class B or C) Retrofitting of 400 000 dwellings per year Market exclusion of all obsolete components or technologies for electric appliances New public buildings conformed with the best energy efficiency standards Thermal retrofitting (-20%) of all state buildings (120 million m2) Launching of a large professional training plan (100 000 professionals trained in 10 years) Financial instruments (reduced rate loans, zero rate loans, …) Source: E Vesine, ADEME, 2008

Tapping the potential is very slow, as can be seen from present trends: trends in heating consumption per m2 Decrease in all countries except Bulgaria, Italy, Croatia and Greece; for southern countries part of the increase due to progress in comfort; Only 1%/year reduction in EU-15 countries with largest decrease (e.g. The Netherlands, UK and France) Source Odyssee

Drivers of the variation in heating consumption per dwelling (EU-15) Tapping the potential is very slow, as can be seen from present trends: why? Drivers of the variation in heating consumption per dwelling (EU-15) Larger dwellings (+0.4 m2/year on average for the EU-15) and diffusion of central heating in the south of Europe have offset the equivalent of 70% of the energy efficiency gains All indicators at normal climate Source Odyssee

specific consumption of dwellings (2003) Tapping the potential is very slow, as can be seen from present trends: impact of new standards in Germany : Problem of compliance and behaviours: specific consumption of dwellings (2003) - 30 % Theoretical savings according to standards : 70% ! Construction year houses: EFM / apartments MFH Source W Eichhammer from German household survey: ISI/DIW/FfE/GfK/IfE 2003