KEY 192A Engineering Key Community Seminar August 28, 2017 The “Master Equation” for Resource Depletion and Environmental Impact from Human Activity Anthony J. Marchese Professor and Associate Dean Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523 http://www.engr.colostate.edu/~marchese

The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy Peak Oil Are we there yet? The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy

The Master Equation Fossil Fuel Depletion (A Matter of WHEN…not IF) FFC/GDP is fundamentally constrained by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics!

Peak Oil “Anomalous Age of Easy Energy” is Nearing its End

Peak Oil “Anomalous Age of Easy Oil” is Nearing its End Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy. Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer.

Non-Conventional Liquid Fossil Fuels Substantial Resources Still Exist for GTL or CTL Enhanced oil recovery Potential Liquid Hydrocarbon Production (Gbbl) Brandt, A. R and Farrell, A. E. (2007). Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources. Climate Change, 84, pp. 241-263.

Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna Loa The Master Equation Also works for Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions CO2 Emissions Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna Loa

U.S. Natural Gas Production Shale Gas is a Vast Energy Source

Shale Gas Production: A Very Recent Phenomenon!

Fracking Gets Most of the Attention But there are Other Climate and Environmental Issues

Environmental Impacts of Oil and Gas Effects are Local and Global

Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas! Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal: Coal: C + O2 → CO2 Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O

Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas! Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal: Coal: C + O2 → CO2 Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O Alert: Natural gas is composed predominantly of methane (CH4), which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas! Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal: Coal: C + O2 → CO2 Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O Alert: Natural gas is composed predominantly of methane (CH4), which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas! Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal: Coal: C + O2 → CO2 Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O Red Alert: If more than a few percent of the natural gas leaks out before we burn it, then GHG emissions from natural gas could be worse than coal!

Natural Gas Infrastructure is Ubiquitous Exploration, Production, Gathering, Processing, Transmission Emissions from natural gas infrastructure are ubiquitous, potentially persistent and can occur upstream of processing (CH4, VOC’s, HAPs) Transmission Production Gathering and Processing