SWFDP in the Antilles (RA IV) METEO-FRANCE / ECMWF NWP capacities RSMT meeting, Martinique 13-15 December 2016 Jean-Noel DEGRACE / Thierry DUPONT Météo-France Antilles-Guyane 1 1

Plan Atmospheric models Global Deterministic models Ensemble Prediction System Regional deterministic models Wave models Regional deterministics 2 2

Global and deterministic atmospheric model ARPEGE (Meteo-France) Characteristics Global model with a 4DVar assimilation scheme 105 pressure level, from 10m à 0,1 hPa Troncature T1198, centered over continental France with a stretch factor of 2,2 Horizontal resolution : Approx. 7,5km over France, 15km in the Caribbean, 36km over the antipodes (New-Zealand) Display : Grid 0,1° ( approx. 11 km) on the ATOURX01 Domain (10S/100W/80N/100E) from 00 to 72h term with 3h step 4 runs per day 3 3

Global and deterministic atmospheric model IFS (ECMWF) Characteristics Global model with 4DVar assimilation scheme 137 levels - Troncature TCo1279 (cubic troncature)  Horizontal resolution about 9 km all over the globe (since march 2016) 4 runs per day, 00UTC, 06UTC, 12UTC et 18UTC Display grids 0.5° resoultion (56 km near equator): Up to term of 240h, step 3,6 ou 12h depending on parameter 0,25° resolution (28 km near equator): Step 3h up to term of 120h, step 6h up to term of 240h 0,125° resolution (14 km near equator): Step 3h up to term of 144h, step 6h up to term of 240h Comments New Simulated Satellite Data (SSD) (since 8 march 2016) 4 4

Global and probabilistic atmospheric model EPS : Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF) Characteristics 2 runs / jour (00UTC et 12UTC) disponibles à environ H+10h20, Résolution spatiale : depuis mars 2016, point de grille de 18km jusqu'à J15 et 36km jusque J46 (échéance mensuelle, 2x par semaine). 62 niveaux. 50 perturbed members by complex processes and 1 non-perturbed control member. Dedicated tropical perturbations (wet targetted vectors over Caraibes and Tropical Cyclone Targetted vectors,) Specific products For « severe weather » ……. and/or Tropical Cyclones 5 5

Global and probabilistic atmospheric model ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products EPSGramms : 6 6

Global and probabilistic atmospheric model ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products EPS thresholded maps : 5, 10 or 20 mm per day EPS Extreme Forecast Index : Wind or Rainfall 7 7

Global and probabilistic atmospheric model ECMWF-EPS : Examples of Specific products For « severe weather » ……. and/or Tropical Cyclones TC ensemble track : Spaghettis : 4 thresholds of MSLP (1000, 1004, 1008, 1012) 8 8

Regional and deterministic atmospheric model AROME (Meteo-France) High-Resolution (2,5km) , Non-Hydrostatic Model (convection explicit resolution) Forced by IFS 4 runs per day : 00Z et 12Z up to 36h, 06Z and 18Z up to 42h Step : 1h Comments - Available at H + 7h30 (a bit late for nowcating …but still usefull !) - Domain will be soon extended for the SWFDP Antilles - Forcing by 1D ocean model is planed to be implemented next year 9 9

Global and deterministic wave model MFW-ARPEGE (Meteo-France) Characteristics French global wave model coupled with ARPEGE 0.5° resolution (56 km near equator) Comments (paramètres spécifiques, qualités/défauts, nouveautés, …) Run 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Term 102h 72h 114h 60h Step 3h Avalability 0400UTC 1045UTC 1535UTC 2240UTC 10 10

Global and deterministic wave model MFWAM-IFS (Meteo-France / ECMWF) Characteristics French global wave model coupled with IFS 0.5° resolution (56 km near equator) Comments Run 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Term 120h 84h Step 3h Avalability 0750UTC 1240UTC 1950UTC 0040UTC 11 11

Global and probabilistic wave model PEPS-WAM (ECMWF) Characteristics EPS Ensemble-based Domain : 0-360E fom 69S up to 75N 0.5° resolution (56 km near equator) Specific products  EPSgrammes, etc. Comments Probabilities H1/3 + Houles > (2m ; 4m ; 6m ; 8m) Probabilites T > (8s ; 10s ; 12s ; 15s). Run 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Term 240h Step 12h Avalability 0915UTC N/A 2115UTC 12 12

Regional and deterministic wave model AROME-MFWAM (Meteo-France / ECMWF) Characteristics Grid 0,1° ( approx. 11 km) Comments (paramètres spécifiques, qualités/défauts, nouveautés, …) Run 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Term 36h 42h Step 3h Avalability 0745UTC 1330UTC 1945UTC 0130UTC 13 13

Regional and deterministic wave model Upgrade to a new High Resolution Wave Model for Caraibles Characteristics Characterics depend on the domain, from 10km on the boundary to 200m near the lesser Antilles. Green domain : MFWAM-IFS 0,1° Purple domain : AROME-MFWAM (will be extend to the new Arome domain) Red domain : AROME+WaveWatch3 WaveWatch3, same physic than MFWAM but able to represent coastal phenomena (wave surges, refractive effects, bottom of the sea friction's effects) 14 14

THANK YOU VERY MUCH / MUCHAS GRACIAS MESI ANPIL / MERCI BEAUCOUP ! ! ! Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane 15