1. SRNWP-PEPS COSMO General Meeting 2005 20-23 September 2005
a regional multi-model ensemble in Europe
COSMO General Meeting 2005
20-23 September 2005
Zürich (Switzerland)
Presentation of
Michael Denhard
Short-Range
Numerical Weather Prediction
Programme
Internet:
Apr-19

2. 20 weather services / 23 forecast products
Denmark HIRLAM ECMWF +60h 0, 6, 12, 18
Finland HIRLAM ECMWF +54h 0, 6, 12, 18
Ireland HIRLAM ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
Netherlands HIRLAM ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
Spain HIRLAM ECMWF +24h 0, 12
Norway I HIRLAM ECMWF +30h 0, 12
Norway II HIRLAM ECMWF +30h 0, 12
Sweden I HIRLAM ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
Sweden II HIRLAM ECMWF +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
Belgium ALADIN ARPEGE +60h 0, 12
Austria ALADIN-AUSTRIA ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
France ALADIN-FRANCE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
Croatia ALADIN-LACE ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
Czech Rep. ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
Hungary ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
Slovakia ALADIN-LACE 11 ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
Slovenia ALADIN-LACE ARPEGE +48h 0, 12
UK I UKMO-LAM 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
UK II UKMO-EU 12 UM global +48h 0, 6, 12, 18
Germany LM 7 GME +48h 0, 12, 18
Switzerland aLMo 7 ECMWF +72h 0, 12
Italy Euro LM 7 EuroHRM +60h 0
Poland LM GME +72h 0, 12
Apr-19

3. SRNWP-PEPS Probabilities PEPS-Grid with a grid spacing of
0.0625° (~7 km)
covering Europe
Probabilities
(Nearest Neighbour)
The ensemble size depends on location and every PEPS grid point has its
own probability distribution
Apr-19

4. Ensemble Products
Ensemble mean. Forecast periods h (24 hours), h and h (12 hours)
Total precipitation (accumulation), sum of convective and large scale precipitation
Total snow (accumulation) ), sum of convective and large scale snow
Maximum 10 m wind speed
Maximum 10 m wind gust speed
2 m minimum/maximum temperature
Probabilistic products. Forecast period h (24 hours)
Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 25, > 40, > 70 mm
Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm
Probabilities of maximum wind speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s
Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s
Probabilistic products. Forecast periods h and h (12 hours)
Probabilities of total precipitation Thresholds: > 20, > 50, > 100 mm
Probabilities of total snow Thresholds: > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm
Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed Thresholds: > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s
Ensemble size per grid point
at most 19
Apr-19

5. Maximum Ensemble Size Total precip. snow Wind speed gust Temperature
depends on main run and meteorological parameter
Total
precip.
snow
Wind
speed
gust
Temperature
Maximum
Ensemble Size
00 UTC
06 UTC
12 UTC
18 UTC 20 19 8 7 6 - 1
Ensemble size per grid point
at most 19
Apr-19

6. Ensemble Mean
21/01/ UTC
Apr-19

7. 21/01/ UTC
Apr-19

8. Cut-off times SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004 Apr-19
Ensemble size per grid point
at most 19
SRNWP-PEPS runs operationally since December 2004
Apr-19

9. provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries
Mask of areas without sufficient models
Wind gusts
provided by COSMO and some ALADIN countries
statistical estimation of wind gusts within PEPS?
Statistics of availability of models
Additional products
more synoptic oriented parameters
indices of convectivity
Precipitation
median instead of mean
lower thresholds
PEPS-Meteograms
(provided by Meteoswiss)
running
under way
planned
Apr-19

10. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005
Validation
Comparison with COSMO-LEPS
Scoring probabilistic forecasts
Ensemble Calibration
Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) Raftery et. al., 2005
BMA for precipitation
running
under way
planned
Apr-19

11. Scientific use (products & individual forecasts)
EURORISK Prev.I.EW windstorms workpackage
MAP D-Phase (Mesoscale Alpine Program)
Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts
consistent forecast scenarios of precipitation from COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS
and LMK for the „MULDE“ catchment in Germany
University Bochum, DWD, BAH Berlin, WASY
Wind Power Prediction
”Optimal Combination of Local Area Models of European Weather Services with
Regard to Wind Power Prediction”
Energy & Meteo Systems, University Oldenburg, DWD
Commercial use (products only)
ECOMET product list
running
under way
planned
Apr-19

12. Thank you to the contributing Weather Services !
Apr-19