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Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October, 3-4 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October, 3-4 2002."— Presentation transcript:

1 Plans for Short-Range Ensemble Forecast at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM Workshop on Short Range Ensemble Forecast Madrid, October, 3-4 2002.

2 October 2002Workshop on SREPS2 Goals of the workshop Methodology and guidelines to build our Ensemble System, but after yesterday presentations… Guidelines to chose a System name: Downscaling ECMWF  EPS LEPS (Tibaldi, ARPA) LAMEPS (Mylne, UKMO) SREF (Du, NCEP) PEACE (Nicolau, MeteoFrance) LAMEPS (Theis, Univ Bonn-DWD) SREPS (García-Moya, INM) SREPULAM (Orfila, INM)

3 October 2002Workshop on SREPS3 Introduction Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast. Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic. Short Range Ensemble prediction can help to forecast these events. Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction.

4 October 2002Workshop on SREPS4 Errors of the short range forecasts Due to model formulation. Due to simplifications in parameterisation schemes. Due to uncertainty in the initial state. Special for LAMs, due to errors in lateral boundary conditions.

5 October 2002Workshop on SREPS5 SREPS I Multi-model approach. Stochastic physics. Multi-boundaries: From few global deterministic models. From global model EPS (ECMWF).

6 October 2002Workshop on SREPS6 SREPS II Different assimilation techniques: OI Variational (3D or 4D) Perturbed analysis: Singular vectors (ECMWF). Breeding (NCEP). Scaled Lagged Average Forecast (SAMEX).

7 October 2002Workshop on SREPS7 What do we need? Enough computer power. Research Following workshop recommendations. Technical difficulties. Large storage system. Database software (MARS). Postprocessing and graphics software. Enough staff for maintenance and monitoring. Verification software.

8 October 2002Workshop on SREPS8 INM New computer Cray Inc. SV2. 40 vector PEs in June 2003. 32 additional PEs in December 2004. Around 360 IFS sustained Gfs in December 2004.

9 October 2002Workshop on SREPS9 Characteristics Integration area Euro-Atlantic. Resolution, around 25 Km and 31 vertical levels. 72 hours forecast. 4 / 8 times a day (depending on computer power).

10 October 2002Workshop on SREPS10 Area

11 October 2002Workshop on SREPS11 Multi-model Hirlam HRM, former limited area model from DWD. MM5. ETA model or any other available numerical model.

12 October 2002Workshop on SREPS12 Boundary Conditions From different global deterministic models: ECMWF. Hirlam. AVN (NCEP). GME, DWD global model.

13 October 2002Workshop on SREPS13 Multi-analysis Assimilation techniques: Hirlam OI Hirlam 3DVAR Perturbations (research needed): SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1 ) Singular vectors Breeding

14 October 2002Workshop on SREPS14 Ensemble 4 models. 4 boundary conditions. 2 analysis. 4 last ensembles (HH, HH-6, HH-12, HH- 18). 32 member ensemble every 6 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 128 members every 6 hours.

15 October 2002Workshop on SREPS15 Verification Objective verification against observations: Show different performance of members. Try a quality index for each member (research needed). Probabilistic forecast verification: ROC curves. Economic value of the forecast. Rank histograms (Talagrand diagrams).

16 October 2002Workshop on SREPS16 Assumption on probability Basic research needed: Same probability for each member of the ensemble. Probability function of the quality index of the member (DEMETER result on multimodel ensemble).

17 October 2002Workshop on SREPS17 Implementation plan Computer depending: Offline daily running: June 2004. Operations: June 2005.

18 October 2002Workshop on SREPS18 Further research Singular vectors vs. breeding. Stochastic physics.

19 October 2002Workshop on SREPS19

20 October 2002Workshop on SREPS20 Few control runs – Assim cycle Hirlam 3DVAR + ECMWF boundaries (6 hours old). HRM, OI analysis + GME boundaries (12 hours old). ETA, OI/3DVAR analysis + AVN (NCEP) boundaries (12 hours old). IFS/INM 3DVAR analysis. UKMO Unified model analysis + UKMO boundaries (6 hours old).

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