Agricultural Economic Outlook Supervisors’ Club Meeting Waterloo, Iowa Sept. 23, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911 1 1

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS

Iowa Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) Liquid Fuel Usage 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) (Percent of 2007 Value) United States 20.6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107% Canada 2.3 96% Mexico 2.1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138% Europe 15.3 92% 88% 89% 90% Japan 5.0 84% 86% 82% China 7.6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222% India 2.8 139% 154% 168% Africa 3.1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148% Central and South America 6.0 112% 117% 125% 133% World 86.1 103% 121% 128% Source: DOE-EIA

Population 2013 2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China   2020 2050 (billion) World 7.095 7.628 9.383 China 1.350 1.385 India 1.657 1.221 1.326 1.304 U.S. 0.317 0.337 0.423 Indonesia 0.251 0.267 Nigeria 0.402 Brazil 0.201 Pakistan 0.214 0.300 0.193 0.212 0.291 0.175 0.208 Bangladesh 0.250 0.164 0.183 0.232 Russia 0.143 0.142 Ethiopia 0.228 Japan 0.127 0.126 Philippines 0.172 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

World Corn Markets Source: USDA 13 13

Arable Land

Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/