1. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economics of Ethanol Production: Iowa’s Strengths and Weaknesses Ames Golden K Kiwanis Ames, Iowa Sept. 8, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Oil Prices Source: EIA for history, NYMEX for future

3. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population 2011 2030 2050 (billion) World6.946World8.323World9.441 China1.337India1.461India1.657 India1.189China1.391China1.304 U.S.0.311U.S.0.366U.S.0.423 Indonesia0.246Indonesia0.289Nigeria0.402 Brazil0.203Nigeria0.264Indonesia0.313 Pakistan0.187Pakistan0.243Pakistan0.291 Nigeria0.166Brazil0.240Ethiopia0.278 Bangladesh0.159Bangladesh0.211Brazil0.261 Russia0.139Ethiopia0.162Bangladesh0.250 Japan0.127Philippines0.138Philippines0.172 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base

4. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Liquid Fuel Usage 200720152020202520302035 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day)(Percent of 2007 Value) United States20.698%100%102%104%107% Canada2.396% 100%104% Mexico2.1105%110%114%129%138% Europe15.392%88% 89%90% Japan5.084%86% 84%82% China7.6132%153%178%201%222% India2.8114%129%139%154%168% Africa3.1113%116%126%135%148% Central and South America6.0110%112%117%125%133% World86.1103%107%113%121%128% Source: Energy Information Administration

5. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Production Source: EIA, 2011 Projection by Hart

6. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Countries Pursuing Biofuels  US  Brazil  Argentina  Colombia  Paraguay  Canada  Uruguay  Mexico  Thailand  New Zealand  South Africa  South Korea  Philippines  Indonesia  Pakistan  China  India  Malaysia  Australia  Japan  EU  Russia  Not a complete list

7. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Location and Products

8. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Monthly Ethanol Data Source: EIA

9. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Penetration

10. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

11. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

12. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Blending Advantage

13. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Tapping into Many Markets Source: 2009 FEW Conference presentation by Neal Jakel (Delta-T)

14. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Fuel Comparison

15. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Gasoline Consumption Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

16. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics RFS Coverage

17. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Government Policies for Biofuels Ethanol  Ad valorem tariff of 2.5%  Import duty of $0.54 per gallon  Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC)  $0.45 per gallon Biodiesel  Biodiesel Mixture Excise Tax Credit  $1.00/0.50 per gallon Cellulosic  Cellulosic Biofuel Producer Tax Credit  $1.01 per gallon

18. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Currently Available Biomass Source: NREL, 2005

19. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Spectrum of Biofuels Source: NREL, 2006  Grain/Sugar Ethanol  Biodiesel  Green Gasoline/Diesel  Cellulosic Ethanol  Butanol  Pyrolysis Liquids  Syngas Liquids Most Mature Least Mature

20. Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/