6/18/2018 James K. Andreasen Daniel A. Kluza U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment Washington, DC.

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Presentation transcript:

6/18/2018 James K. Andreasen Daniel A. Kluza U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment Washington, DC Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 2 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species 6/18/2018 Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species Ecosystem structure and function Broad array of taxa Plants, insects, pathogens Regional habitat diversity Forest Alliaria petiolata Discula destructiva Adelges tsugae Lymantria dispar Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 3 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species 6/18/2018 Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species Regional habitat diversity Streams, rivers Dreissena polymorpha Hydrilla verticillata Wetlands Lythrum salicaria Microstegium vimineum Chesapeake Bay Cygnus olor Myocastor coypus Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 4 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species 6/18/2018 Mid-Atlantic Invasive Species Ecosystem goods and services, socioeconomic costs Dreissena polymorpha Hydrilla verticillata Public health Aedes albopictus Heracleum mantegazzianum Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 5 of 29. Chestnut blight Cryphonectria parasitica 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Tests of GARP Model Predictivity 6/18/2018 Anderson, R. P., M. Gomez, and A. T. Peterson. 2002. Geographical distributions of spiny pocket mice in South America: Insights from predictive models. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11:131-141. Anderson, R. P., M. Laverde, and A. T. Peterson. In press. Niche-based models of species' potential macrodistributions suggest competition and competitive release in spiny pocket mice. Oikos. Anderson, R. P., D. Lew, and A. T. Peterson. 2003. Using error distributions to select best subsets of predictive models of species' distributions. Ecological Modelling. Feria, T. P., and A. T. Peterson. 2002. Using point occurrence data and inferential algorithms to predict local communities of birds. Diversity and Distributions 8:49-56. Peterson, A. T. 2001. Predicting species' geographic distributions based on ecological niche modeling. Condor 103:599-605. Peterson, A. T., L. G. Ball, and K. C. Cohoon. 2002a. Predicting distributions of tropical birds. Ibis 144:e27-e32. Peterson, A. T., and K. C. Cohoon. 1999. Sensitivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geographic data completeness. Ecological Modelling 117:159-164. Peterson, A. T., S. L. Egbert, V. Sanchez-Cordero, and K. P. Price. 2000. Geographic analysis of conservation priorities using distributional modelling and complementarity: Endemic birds and mammals in Veracruz, Mexico. Biological Conservation 93:85-94. Peterson, A. T., M. A. Ortega-Huerta, J. Bartley, V. Sanchez-Cordero, J. Soberon, R. H. Buddemeier, and D. R. B. Stockwell. 2002b. Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. NATURE 416:626-629. Peterson, A. T., V. Sanchez-Cordero, J. Soberon, J. Bartley, R. H. Buddemeier, and A. G. Navarro-Siguenza. 2001. Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae. Ecological Modelling 144:21-30. Peterson, A. T., R. Scachetti-Pereira, and W. W. Hargrove. Submitted. Potential distribution of Asian longhorned beetles (Anoplophora glabripennis) in North America. Journal of Economic Entomology. Peterson, A. T., J. Soberon, and V. Sanchez-Cordero. 1999. Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science 285:1265-1267. Peterson, A. T., D. R. B. Stockwell, and D. A. Kluza. 2002c. Distributional prediction based on ecological niche modeling of primary occurrence data. Pages 617-623 in Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Scale and Accuracy. '('J. M. Scott, P. J. Heglund, and M. L. Morrison, Ed.)'.Island Press, Washington, D.C. Peterson, A. T., and D. A. Vieglais. 2001. Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling. BioScience 51:363-371. Stockwell, D. R. B., and A. T. Peterson. 2002a. Controlling bias in biodiversity data. Pages 537-546 in Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Scale and Accuracy. '('J. M. Scott, P. J. Heglund, and M. L. Morrison, Ed.)'.Island Press, Washington, D.C. Stockwell, D. R. B., and A. T. Peterson. 2002b. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecological Modelling 148:1-13. Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 9 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Hydrilla verticillata 6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 10 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Rule set for prediction 6/18/2018 0 r 0.50 0.99 28.55 0.35 0.504 IF - Elev*0.26 r + Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=BACKGROUND 4 r 0.53 0.86 23.58 0.51 0.314 IF + Elev*0.32 r - Precip*0.19 r - Temp*0.10 r THEN Taxon=PRESENT 1 r 0.49 0.91 26.32 0.39 0.122 IF - Elev*0.02 r + Precip*0.28 r - Temp*0.30 r 3 m 0.49 0.85 23.73 0.44 0.028 IF Elev=[1482,3360]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 4]r 6 d 0.49 0.86 20.90 0.33 0.019 IF Elev=[1937,3241]r 2 d 0.49 0.85 23.78 0.44 0.013 IF Elev=[ 0,2727]r AND Precip=[ 4, 9]r 5 d 0.48 0.83 22.11 0.41 0.000 IF Elev=[1640,2866]r AND Precip=[ 1, 4]r AND Temp=[ 2, 5]r Rule set for prediction Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 12 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Hydrilla verticillata 6/18/2018 Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 14 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution as Percent of Watershed Area Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 15 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Section Lobatae Species Richness 6/18/2018 Section Lobatae Species Richness Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 18 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Ecological Niche Modeling 6/18/2018 Ecological Niche Modeling Native range locality data Ecological data Distributional prediction GARP Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 21 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Ecological Niche Modeling 6/18/2018 Ecological Niche Modeling Native range locality data Ecological data Distributional prediction GARP Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 22 of 29. Changed climate projection 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution 6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 23 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution, 2020 6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution, 2020 Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 24 of 29. 4.8. Hadley CM2 HSDX20 Model 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution as Percent of Watershed Area Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 25 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

6/18/2018 Hydrilla verticillata Potential Distribution as Percent of Watershed Area, 2020 Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 26 of 29. 4.8. Hadley CM2 HSDX20 Model 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Invasive Species Risk Assessment 6/18/2018 Invasive Species Risk Assessment Native range locality data Ecological Niche Modeling (GARP) Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 27 of 29. Assess Risks Species by Species Policy! 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

Other Applications Model/predict spread of emerging diseases 6/18/2018 Other Applications Model/predict spread of emerging diseases Predict and avoid environmental impacts Design agricultural systems to avoid pests Develop optimal conservation strategies Design species reintroduction programs Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 28 of 29. 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt

James K. Andreasen andreasen.james@epa.gov 6/18/2018 James K. Andreasen andreasen.james@epa.gov Daniel A. Kluza kluza.daniel@epa.gov Kluza_ReVa MAIA conf: 29 of 29. http://www.lifemapper.org http://www.lifemapper.org/desktopgarp 4.8. 4.8 Invasive Species.ppt