1. Biodiversity and Climate Change
Using Florida Plants
To Explore Concepts in Ecology and Evolution

2. The totality of life on Earth
Biodiversity:
The totality of life on Earth
What is biodiversity? Simply, the totality of life on Earth – all 1.8 million described species, the ecological and genetic variants within each species, and the perhaps 8 mil to 98 mil species yet to be described.

3. Biodiversity Crisis & Societal Problems
Loss of biodiversity
Climate change
Emerging pathogens
Invasive species
Threats to food security
Environmentally induced health issues
Losses and changes of biodiversity relate to a host of societal problems ranging from human health to ecosystem services. Solving these biodiversity-related problems …
Of these issues, let’s focus just a moment on invasive species.
Solving these biodiversity-centered problems
requires concentrated attention
from diverse perspectives

4. Invasive Species: Ecological & Economic Impacts
Where have invasives been introduced, and how quickly are they spreading?
What is the pattern of spread, and do patterns covary with other species?
How does climate change affect the spread of invasives?
Can we predict future invasions?
Invasive species have tremendous ecological and economic impacts. It is estimated that they cost the US >$120 billion per yr, and they are particularly devastating in Florida, to both natural ecosystems and agriculture. Coordinated, focused effort on invasive species, for example, could lead to improved understanding of the tempo and pattern of spread, and ultimately to the control of these species.

5. Biodiversity Collections
The single largest source of information on biological diversity (outside nature) >1,600 natural history collections in US alone
The single largest source of information on biodiversity – outside of nature itself – is the set of >1600 natural history collections in the US alone. These collections contain an estimated 1 billion specimens, with 2-4 billion estimated globally.
1 billion specimens
in USA
2-4 billion specimens
globally

6. Collections: The Library of Life Florida Museum of Natural History
> 30 Million
Specimens and Artifacts
2nd Largest University Museum
in US
Here at UF, the FLMNH houses >30 million specimens and artifacts, making it the 2nd largest university NH museum in the country, just behind Harvard.

7. This shows the ranking based on size of the world’s largest NH museums: Smithsonian, followed by the NH Museums in London, Paris, LA, New York, Harvard, and us. Note that we are considerably larger than museums at our peer institutions, such as Michigan, UC-Berkeley, Nebraska, and Kansas.

8. Collection Size: US Ranking
If we focus just on US collections, and take into account the fact that the State Entomological Collections are housed at the Division of Plant Industry, adjacent to UF on 34th St, the FL State collections housed here in Gainesville become the second largest natural history collection in the country, and the largest assd with a university.

9. Florida Plant Diversity in a Changing Climate
Integrating herbarium specimen data,
climate change models, and phylogeny
Florida Plant Phylogeny
Includes:
239 families (100% of FL)
1336 genera (96% of FL)
2587 species (63% of FL)
For the past couple of years, we have been using herbarium specimens (that is, museum specimens of plants) to study the impact of climate change on Florida’s plant diversity.
Today, 2050, 2080
C. Germain-Aubrey, J. Allen,
K. Neubig, L. Majure, R. Abbott, R. Guralnick, J. M. Ponciano, D. Soltis, P. Soltis
The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes:
239 families (100% of FL)
1336 genera (96% of FL)
2587 species (63% of FL)
The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes:
239 families (100% of FL)
1336 genera (96% of FL)
2587 species (63% of FL)
The Florida Plant Phylogeny Includes:
239 families (100% of FL)
1336 genera (96% of FL)
2587 species (63% of FL)

10. Modeling the Distribution of Species
Location information and environmental data
Software to model the range of each species
Project onto future climate conditions
For Florida plants:
>1500 plant species (of 4200 species)
>511,000 georeferenced points
Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
We used specimen data from the herbaria of UF, FSU, and U of S Florida (>500,000 specimens) to map the distribution of >2700 species. We then used software for ecological niche modeling of each species based on environmental features, such as temperature, precipitation, soil type, etc.

11. Abildgaardia ovata (flatspike sedge)
Responses to Climate Change: Winners & Losers
Abildgaardia ovata (flatspike sedge)
now
2050
Prunus geniculata (scrub plum)
Two examples of species for which niche modeling was conducted are shown here.
First, the flatspike sedge, a relative of the grass family, currently has a niche as shown here.
However, the predicted distribution for this species in 2050 based on climate models for Florida (increased temperature and altered precipitation patterns) is much reduced. This species will not do well in the future.
In contrast, the scrub plum in the rose family, shown below, currently has a relatively narrow range, mostly in the scrub regions of central Florida. In 2050, Florida will be hotter and drier than it is today – and the conditions are predicted to be favorable for this species.
now
2050

12. Florida Plant Diversity Now
High
species diversity
Low
species diversity
We compiled the niche models for all of the species analyzed and summarize the data here. Here, green indicates high species diversity, and cantaloupe indicates low species diversity. You can see that the highest plant diversity currently is in the panhandle and NW peninsular Florida.

14. Research Lab
Field
Museum

16. Teaching Module Objectives Focal Concepts Skills Developed
To use niche modeling as an example of how natural history collections are utilized by scientists.
To show students the applications of niche modeling, such as climate change and urbanization.
To familiarize students with the programs used to generate the models and the logic behind how those programs work.
To gain a better appreciation of the factors impacting the distribution of biodiversity today and in the future.
Focal Concepts
Skills Developed
Skills and access needed
Audience/Duration
Assessment
Future Directions
Add a phylogenetic context: Basic understanding of tree building, including parsimony and characters
The role of DNA in phylogenetic analysis, and the possible contribution of museum specimens in this process

17. Overview of Day’s Activities
Introduction – Pam
Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan
iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn
Georeferencing – Blaine
Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte
Tying to phylogeny – Doug
Discussion & Wrap-up

18. Using Museum Specimens and Computer Models in Biodiversity Studies
Herbaria important sources of information on past and present species distributions
Location information and environmental data
temperature, precipitation, soil
Software to model the range of each species
Project onto future climate conditions
>2700 plant species (of 4200) >511,000 plant location records
We used >500,000 herbarium specimens for over 2700 species of plants (of 4200 total in Florida) along with environmental data – temp, precip, soil – to model the range of each species. We then projected these distributions onto where these conditions would be found in the future.
Calhoun County

19.
National center for digitization of biodiversity collections
Collaboration among FLMNH, Engineering, & FSU: ~$12M
Coordinate digitization and databasing of US collections
Ingest, serve, integrate data:
Localities
Dates
Images
UF is now home to iDigBio, the national center for digitization of biodiversity collections. This NSF-supported center is a collaboration among the Museum, Engineering, and computer scientists at FSU, with the mission of coordinating digitization and databasing of US collections. iDigBio ingests, serves, and integrates data, such as locality information, date of collection, and images, from all natural history collections in the country.

20. Ten TCNS and collaborating institutions: 152 institutions in 50 states
To date, iDigBio is coordinating the data for over 150 institutions in all 50 states.
HUB
134 institutions
in 49 states
Ten TCNS and collaborating institutions: 152 institutions in 50 states

22. Georeferencing Assigns geographic coordinates to locality data
Allows data from previous collection events to be displayed on digital maps
Allows researchers to:
visualize the spatial and temporal intensity of scientific collecting activity
examine species distributions
develop predictive models of species habitat use
use natural history data to address important scientific and societal needs such as conservation, environmental restoration, and preparing for global climate change

23. Elements of a niche taxonomy
J. Soberon

24. Modeling the Distribution of Species
Location information and environmental data
Software to model the range of each species
Project onto future climate conditions
For Florida plants:
>2700 plant species (of 4200 species)
>511,000 georeferenced points
Environmental features: temperature, precipitation, soil, etc.
We used specimen data from the herbaria of UF, FSU, and U of S Florida (>500,000 specimens) to map the distribution of >2700 species. We then used software for ecological niche modeling of each species based on environmental features, such as temperature, precipitation, soil type, etc.

25. Overview of Day’s Activities
8:30 Introduction – Pam
9:00 Museum specimens & locality data – Ryan
9:15 iDigBio & Notes from Nature – Shawn
9:30 Georeferencing – Blaine
9:45 Ecological Niche Modeling – Charlotte
10:00 Break
10:15 Ecological Niche Modeling Step by Step
12:30 Lunch
1:00 Tying to phylogeny – Doug
Discussion & Wrap-up – all

26. Between Now and 2050… Panhandle species moving NORTH!
Peninsula species moving SOUTH!
When we apply the climate predictions for Florida for 2050, we get a surprising result. Models of organismal response to climate change generally predict that species in the Northern Hemisphere will move north, tracking cooler temperatures. However, although Florida plants from the very northern part of the state, especially in the Panhandle, are indeed predicted to move northward, many Florida species from the Peninsula will actually move south! This movement can be seen here in this map that shows the change in species numbers between now and 2050: green indicates areas of species increase, and cantaloupe areas of species loss. Note that the Panhandle, a former high-diversity area, will lose species, mostly to the North, but south Florida – the Everglades – will increase in species numbers, presumably because other species will have migrated there.
# spp #spp now

27. Sea Level Rise by 2050 4m
Unfortunately, our models don’t take into account rising sea levels. Note that a 4-m rise in sea level – on the high end of predictions – will inundate south Florida, the new home of the many species that have moved southward, presumably in search of increased moisture.