Exploring post-carbon futures through participatory modelling Výkvěty 2017 Martin Černý

Post-carbon futures? Post-carbon economy: (almost) without fossil fuels Is it feasible? At what cost? Assumption I: Changing our energy system will require a complete shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies. Assumption II: The future might not to be forecasted, but instead to be carefully constructed. Exploring possible post-carbon transformation pathways means to gain a better understanding of the system and guide our choices and actions at the present.

(1) Methodology (2) Input-Output model (3) Results (4) Risks & Limitations

Methodology We analyse the expected evolution of the transformation process: By considering monetary fluxes between industries and their development pathways; In order to see the effects of the transformation throughout the economy (=how replacing fossil fuels with RES affects the rest of the economy). CZE x AUT comparison: similar geographical realities, but still significant differences in energy policy (“East- West contrast”). The comparison should allow us better identify the drivers of the transformation.

Methodology Participatory process: bringing together two types of stakeholders – “experts“ and “engaged citizens“ “Experts“: Stakeholders with detailed knowledge of possible developments in particular industries (organizational and technological changes) e.g. engineers or researchers “Engaged citizens“: People coming up with multifaceted proposals for post-carbon transformation e.g. activists, NGO analysts, researchers. Assumption: “Engaged citizens” have both (1) knowledge of the topic, and (2) deep interest in shaping the future towards their desires (PNS approach).

Post-normal science Extended peer-review (i.e. including non-scientific knowledge) as a specific approach under fundamental uncertainty. We take this approach in order to get more compelling images of desirable future socio-economic structures, trusted by those who endeavour to bring this future.

Input-output analysis Industry to industry input-output table From↓ | To→ Agriculture Manufacturing Services   Input-output analysis (IOA) measures direct and indirect effects of changes in consumption/production in the economy. Rows: “Who gives to whom?” Columns: “Who receives from whom?”

Technical coefficients Industry to industry input-output table From↓ | To→ Agriculture Manufacturing Services € $   To identify key features of the input-output economic structure it is necessary to focus on the technical coefficients: a ratio of input to a given sector to its output, measured in monetary terms.

Sectoral disaggregation Industry to industry input-output table From↓ | To→ Agriculture … Electricity from fossil fuels Electricity from wind Electricity from solar   We calculated the technical coefficients for the electricity sector disaggregated to wind and solar energy and the „fossil rest“. Calculations based on “input cost shares” (=what inputs are necessary to construct and to run a windmill / a PV panel), derived from studies on wind and solar energy production inputs (materials, maintenance, …).

The input-output model Once technical coefficients and their changes over time are defined, it is possible to build future input-output table(s). Tables for 2030 and 2050 are showing the structural representation of the gradual transformation to a post- carbon economy. We modelled a 100% share of wind and solar energy (replacing the fossil fuels based electricity production). 2030 table is based on 50% from fossil sources and from 25% wind and 25% PV solar. 2050 table is fully based on RES: 50% electricity from wind and 50% from PV solar. What would such developments imply for the economy, if nothing else changes?

Results Global – past developments & future projections (based on very! simplified assumptions) CZE and AUT – data will be obtained with participatory modelling as suggested

Electricity sector to itself Agriculture

Summary & Conclusions The model shows growing significance of the agricultural sector, which is necessary to provide the land for both wind energy power plants and for solar energy from PV panels (not speaking about biomass – somehow obvious). Is there enough land? Other trends include decreasing demand from the electricity sector to itself, which might imply a growing energy return on investment of the renewable energy sources. Unlike expected, there is no considerable decrease from the sector Mining and Quarrying, which might be alarming for long-term sustainability of an economy fully based on RES.

Risks & Limitations The results do not yet respect any biophysical limits of land, minerals etc. availability – both necessary aspects for successful operation of a post-carbon economy, fully based on renewable energy. It is far from realistic to assume that there will be no technological change and thus that the cost shares found in the current studies will stay the same over the analyzed period (until 2050). Participatory modelling should inform us about such developments.