1. The Role of Efficient Electrification in the Future Energy System
Deana Dennis Sr. Manager, Government & External Relations
NASUCA Mid-Year Meeting Minneapolis, Minnesota June 26, 2018

2. Three Key Aspects of EPRI
Independent Objective, scientifically based results address reliability, efficiency, affordability, health, safety, and the environment
Nonprofit Chartered to serve the public benefit
Collaborative Bring together scientists, engineers, academic researchers, and industry experts

3. Efficient Electrification R&D at EPRI
Transportation
Buildings & Industry
New Applications

4. EPRI’s Focus – Going Forward
ANALYTICS
Conduct national level electrification potential analysis
Conduct state and local level electrification potential analyses
Identify Early Stage Efficient Electrification Technologies
Accelerate Adoption Through Expanded EPRI Lab Capabilities and Field Demonstrations
Develop Electrification Roadmap
Develop Cost-Benefit Analysis Framework
Convene Efficient Electrification International Conference
TECHNOLOGY PIPELINE
R&D COLLABORATION
INFORM INDUSTRY STAKEHOLDERS, POLICYMAKERS, REGULATORS AND CUSTOMERS

5. U.S. National Electrification Assessment: Scenarios Examined
CONSERVATIVE
Slower Technology Change
AEO 2017 growth path for GDP and service demands, and primary fuel prices
EPRI assumptions for cost and performance of technologies and energy efficiency over time
Existing state-level policies and targets
REFERENCE
Reference Technology
PROGRESSIVE
Reference Technology + Moderate Carbon Price
TRANSFORMATION
Reference Technology + Stringent Carbon Price

6. U.S. National Electrification Assessment (USNEA) - Findings
SCENARIO
Electricity Portion of Final Energy ( )
Total Final Energy
Economy Wide
Electric Load
CONSERVATIVE (21%- 32%)
20%
19%
24%
REFERENCE (21%- 36%)
22%
20%
32%
PROGRESSIVE (21%- 39%)
27%
57%
35%
TRANSFORMATION (21%- 47%)
32%
67%
52%

7. Efficient Electrification: Reference Scenario
GDP Growth (AEO)
6000
+32% Growth 2015  2050
120
Structural Change (AEO)
5000
100
Vehicles
Electrification
4000
Buildings 80
Industry
Quad Btus Final Energy
Efficiency Improvements
TWh Electricity Demand
3000 60
Electrification
Buildings (before electrification)
Other Non-Electric Energy
2000 40
EPRI thinks that there will be greater efficiency improvements overall compared to AEO.
We see that some of this efficiency will come through electrification.
Natural Gas 20
1000
Industry (before electrification)
Electric Share
Increased Electricity
Electricity
21%
36%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

8. Efficient Electrification: Transformation
GDP Growth (AEO)
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
+52% Growth 2015  2050
Tight Carbon Target
120
Vehicles
Structural Change (AEO)
Electrification
100
Buildings
Industry 80
Quad Btus Final Energy
Efficiency Improvements
TWh Electricity Demand 60
Buildings (before electrification)
Electrification 40
Other Non-Electric Energy
Natural Gas 20
Industry (before electrification)
Electric Share
Increased Electricity
Electricity
21%
47%
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

9. Electric Generation Mix and Total CO2 Emissions
2050
Transformation
History
Progressive
Rooftop PV
Reference
Solar
Conservative
Conservative
Wind
Reference
2015
Hydro+
new Nuclear existing
Progressive
Nuclear NG
CCS
Transformation
Coal
0.44
0.39
0.38
0.05
0.02
tCO2/MWh

10. Total and Electric Generation CO2 Emissions
Total Energy-Related CO2
Increasing electrification leads to lower overall CO2 emissions, even as emissions from electric generation increase in the USNEA Reference
USNEA Reference
History
USNEA projections
USNEA Reference
USNEA Transformation
Electric Generation CO2
USNEA Transformation

11. Transportation: Looking Ahead at Economic Potential of EV (Reference)
Battery costs continue to fall rapidly
Car manufacturers develop wide range of EV models with ~300 mile range
Economic Potential
Adoption
EV / PHEV are most economical choice for 75% of potential new vehicle decisions by 2030
EV / PHEV represent 40% of new vehicle market by
Home or work charging is available for most drivers
EV maintenance costs are lower
NG prices remain low, moderate increase in oil price
(90% by 2050)
(75% by 2050)
ICEV fuel economy continues to improve

12. Key Takeaways from National Electrification Assessment
System Impacts
Improved Environmental Outcomes
Electric Sector Resource Planning
Natural Gas
Remains an important fuel for end-use and electric generation
Energy Efficiency
Efficient electrification + end-use efficiency lead to falling final energy use
Electrification Trend Continues
Driven by technological change and consumer choice, further bolstered by policy
AND…
Realizing the full potential will require deliberate and integrated decisions

13. Join EPRI for a Global Forum on Electrification

14. Learn More about EPRI’s Efficient Electrification R&D Initiative:
Download EPRI’s U.S. National Electrification Assessment: