1. Trade performance of the EU economies: Inter-country input-output tables (IOTs) as a necessary tool Conference of European Statistics Stakeholders, Budapest October 2016
Lars Nilsson Deputy Head of Unit, Associate Professor Chief Economist and Trade Analysis Unit DG TRADE

2. Outline
Studies conducted by DG Trade on the impact of trade agreements
Methodology and data (IOTs) used
Limitations of the analyses and alternative methodologies
Summary and conclusions

3. Studies on the impact of trade agreements
Impact Assessments (IAs), requirement for all major Commission initiatives
Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs) complement IAs with additional sectoral- and qualitative analyses and stakeholder consultations
Economic assessment of the negotiated outcome (EANO) once the negotiations are concluded
Ex-post analysis of the agreement once an agreement has entered into force and sufficient time has passed

4. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models
Use actual economic data to estimate how an economy might react to changes in e.g. trade policy
Reflects linkages between sectors and across countries. Can simulate reductions in tariff and non-tariff barriers
Results to be interpreted as compared to the baseline, i.e., what it would have been in the absence of an agreement

5. Limitations and other methodologies
Level of aggregation - sector details in goods and services are limited
Certain elements are difficult to assess properly, irrespective of methodology
Partial equilibrium models to be used when product level results are needed (but linkages lost)
Econometrics used primarily for ex-post assessments

6. Underlying data – the IO tables
Underlying data for most studies come from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data base.
Latest release features three reference years and consistent IO tables for 140 regions and 57 (GTAP) sectors.
Contains bilateral trade patterns, tariffs, production, consumption and intermediate use of commodities and services, energy data, CO2 emissions, etc.
For new IO tables, sources and procedures used to create them must be provided along with the data

7. Improving EU IO tables
European Court of Auditors of EU preferential trade arrangements - recommended updating the EU IO tables available in the GTAP database
Administrative Arrangement between DG TRADE and DG JRC. Purpose is to more accurately reflect technical coefficients and structures of commodities for final and intermediate use
Data to match GTAP submission requirements. Deadline November 2016
In parallel, trying to improve the data in the area of services by further disaggregation and split by mode of supply

8. Summary and conclusions
IO tables indispensable for assessing the impact of trade agreements
Work undertaken to update EU IO tables and improve the underlying data
Alternative methodologies available for analyses on a specific set of products or an industry