Prof. Dr. V. Zebergs, Prof. Dr. N Zeltins INSTITUTE OF POWER ENGINEERING CENERG Centre of Excellence Integration Centre for Central Europe for Research in Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels and Renewable Sources   Development of Latvian energy balance Prof. Dr. V. Zebergs, Prof. Dr. N Zeltins Institute of Physical Energetics Latvian Academy of Sciences Riga – Warsaw, 2004.

Introduction Latvia has possibilities to have all kinds of energy sources practically in unlimited amount Latvia has lots of good see harbour and other transport system for import energy sources Gas supply Latvia has only from one side – from Russian gas pipeline system Latvia is only one of 3 Baltic countries witch covered only partly his electricity consumption in present time and import up to 50% of consumption There fore for developing of Latvian energy balance great importance has chose of electricity production technology and competition between gas, coal and nuclear energy

Prognoses of the Possible Technologies of Base Capacity Electric Power Plants in Latvia Electricity production technology at primary energy sources Periods 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 After 2030 Natural gas ++ + -- Coal Nuclear energy - Evaluation of technological possibilities: ++ very high; +high; -low; --very low

Electricity production Prognoses of average GDP grows for Latvia is 5% per year Prognoses of average grows of electricity consumption in Latvia is 2% per year In this circumstances prognoses of electricity demand in Latvia: Unit 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Electricity consumption TWh 10.2 5.9 7.2 8.8 10.7 Peak demand MW 1685 1226 1440 1760 2140

Electricity production in Latvia depending on technology of power plants Unit 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Generation total TWh 6.7 4.1 6.69 8.82 10.95 Coal - 0,2 2.1 4,2 Oil 1.0 0.1 Gas 0.9 1.2 4.0 4.2 Nuclear Hydro 4.6 2.8 2.44 2.46 2.48 Other 0.2 0.05 0.06 0.07 Imports (+) +3.9 +2.1 +0.51 Exports (-) -0.4 -0.3 -0.02 -0.25 Consumption 10.2 5.9 7.2 8.8 10.7

Developing of Latvian primary energy balance Total grows of consumption of primary energy sources in Latvia in the future mainly connected with electricity production Structural change of primary energy sources consumption in Latvia in the future mainly are connected with: grows of coal consumption for big capacity power plants grows of consumption of wood for heat supply and electricity production in small capacity CHP and boiler houses grows of production other REN’s and bio fuel

Prognoses of the Latvian energy balance (Mtoe) Primary Energy Supply 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Indigenous Production Hydro Wood end other REN Total production 0.387 0.375 0.762 0.24 1.01 1.25 0.243 1.1 1.343 0.245 1.2 1.445 0.247 1.3 1,547 Imports (+) Coal Oil Natural Gas Other (electricity) Total imports 0.61 4.49 2.45 0.34 7.89 0.066 1.20 1.09 0.18 2.72 0.17 1.40 1.63 0.04 3.24 0.60 1.60 1.69 - 3.89 1.13 1.80 1.70 4.63 Exports (-) Other Total exports 0.031 0.2 0.231 0.202 0.22 TPES [PJ] TPES [Mtoe] 362 8.65 156 3.74 183 4.383 215 5.133 249 5.957

Trend of developing of Latvian primary energy balance and its stricture

Ecological consequences of developing of Latvian primary energy balance Main ecological consequences of developing Latvian primary energy balance are connected with analyse of greenhouse gases CO2 emission and SO2 and NOx emission Greenhouse gases CO2 on the level 2010 is limited by Kyoto protocol Emission of SO2 and NOx is limited by EU (Göteborg) protocol Limiting emission after year 2010 – 2015 is unknown

SO2 and NOx emission from energy consumption in Latvia

CO2 emission from energy consumption in Latvia