Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

MEDEF 1 New energies and new technologies : a source of growth and cooperation.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "MEDEF 1 New energies and new technologies : a source of growth and cooperation."— Presentation transcript:

1 MEDEF 1 New energies and new technologies : a source of growth and cooperation

2 MEDEF 2 Facts in France CO2 emissions -Per KWh »France 70g »Europe 312g -Per Unit of PIB »France : 1 »Germany : 2 French competitive advantage -For a CO2 Price of 100€/t -A differential of 30€/MWH Our purpose : continue !!

3 MEDEF 3 Note: (1) Additional electricity consumption linked to Heat Pumps (excluding Joule effect substitution) Source: ADEME, RTE, Eurelectric, SNCF, Hydro Québec, Estin & Co Analyses In 2020, within the framework of the break scenario integrating use transfers, electricity consumption could be up by 15% on current consumption Break Scenario - France - 2005-2007 - 2020 – French consumption 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2020 2005-2007 EDC Heat Pumps (1) Industry Cars Rail transport Hot Water, cooking Developing current uses + 15% 479 TWh 552 TWh Consumption (in TWh)

4 MEDEF 4 In 2020, within the framework of the break scenario including use transfers, CO 2 emissions due to electricity consumption would be 19 M tonnes, which means a reduction of 62% compared with 2005-2007 Break scenario - France - 2005-2007 - 2020 – French consumption 2020 2005-2007 1 GW saved in peak would make it possible to avoid the production of 4 Mt of CO 2 (as long as total production is partly restructured linked in connection with the development of new uses for electricity) CO 2 emissions (in Mt) Emissions from electricity production Avoided emissions from electricity production (savings, restructuring of total production by smoothing the curve) Emissions from substitutable non-electric productions - 62 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Other uses (4) 60 Mt 23 Mt EDC (5) Heat pump (6) Other electrical uses (9) Erasure (10) Cars (8) Transport (2) Cars (3) Rail transport (7) 19 Mt (11) 34 Mt - 44 % Heating (1)

5 MEDEF 5 Growth linked to modal transfers will be significant after 2020 Consumption France - 2020 - TWh Notes: (1) the growth rate of the EDC scenario after 2020 is the same as for the period 2005-2020; (2) Public and private housing reprocessed with Joule effect electricity substitution Source: Eurelectric, RTE, EdF, Estin & Co Analysis Consumption (in TWh) Heat Pumps VHT Heat Pumps (2) Cars Consumption forecast within the EDC scenario (1) Industrial uses Rail transport Hot Water, cooking, … Modal transfers (in TWh) Cars 03 14 Heat Pumps 159 Heat Pumps VHT 027 Total 9 (2%) 45 (9%) 96 (18%) Rail transport 51617 Industrial uses 211 23 Cooking, Hot Water, … 18 26 0 400 500 600 700 200520102015202020252030

6 MEDEF 6 The number of electric or hybrid cars (1) could reach 5 million in 2030 Electric or hybrid cars - France - 2005-2030 – Stock Vision Note: (1) The only cars that can be counted are those that can be recharged on the electric network and the daily journeys that will use this type of energy; (2) Total number forecasts take into account a 15-year life cycle for each car; (3) Consumption hypotheses 31 kWh/100 km return on experience (source IUT Montluçon) urban mileage 40 km/day 220 days/year Source: INSEE, CCFA, Toyota, Eurelectric, RTE, Estin & Co Analysis Market share on sales (in %) Total number (2) (in k units) Consumption (3) (in GWh) 0% 0 0 0.5% 10 28 4% 244 670 8% 920 2 500 19% 2 508 6 840 30% 5 126 14 000 Total number of electric or hybrid cars (in k units) 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 200520102015202020252030 ROUGH ESTIMATE

7 MEDEF 7 In the break scenario, the demand curve can be smoothed out by reducing peak demand and increasing basic demand Source: UFE, Estin & Co Analysis Demand set up ( in MW) Time of day Demand set up before use transfer (1) Reduction in peak demand through erasure and transfer (2) Increase in basic demand through contracyclical uses (e.g.: recharging electric cars) Demand set up after use transfer Basic consumption Peak consumption 789101112131415161718192021222324123456 (1) (2)

8 MEDEF 8 A break scenario taking into account a smoothing of the peak would make it possible to reduce the use of carbon-based industries Modelling demand and production - France - average 2020 Source: Estin & Co Analysis Hours per season brackets (in hours) Cogeneration Renewable Water-to-wire Nuclear Pumpage Lake Demand curve Fuel oil + Combustion turbine CCG Installed production (in GW) 6.0 32.7 11.3 67.5 9.4 5.3 2.5 Coal 11.9 Total 148.1 Power (in MW) PeakSemi-basicBasic 0 1 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 000 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000

9 MEDEF 9 The break scenario forecasts a reduction in emissions thanks to electricity consumption of 44% by 2020 despite the development of new uses of electricity Break scenario - 2020 – French consumption Total Production (in TWh) Production (in TWh) 656.5 Nuclear 460.0 Coal + CCG 48.3 Fuel oil + Combustion Turbine 0.2 Decentralised thermic (cogeneration) 25.0 Hydraulic 73.0 Other REn 50.0 Total production (in GW) Total production (in GW) 67.5 11.9 2.5 6.0 26.0 21.0 148.1 Source: RTE, Estin & Co Analysis 0.8 0 0.2 0 CO 2 emissions (in Mt) CO 2 emissions (in Mt) 18.2 8.0 27.1 - 8.1 19 Exports Consumption France

10 MEDEF 10 Thank you for your attention!

11 MEDEF 11 Production planned within the framework of the break scenario integrates the objectives of the Grenelle agreement France Production - 2020 - GW Notes: 104.5 TWh are exported and the imports are no longer necessary; (1) In other words, 2 EPR at1.5 GW extra compared to the RTE scenarios, plus the equivalent of one EPR per increase in total power Source: RTE, Estin & Co Analysis Includes 2 extra EPR (including Flamanville III) plus the equivalent production of an EPR linked to improving existing total production (1) Includes the latest development estimations coherent with RTE’s Forecasted Balance Sheet 2007 Includes the development estimations from RTE’s Forecasted Balance Sheet 2007 Fulfils the objectives of the Grenelle environment agreement Fulfils the objectives of the Grenelle Environment agreement Includes the latest development estimations and follows the current closures programme (length of working life 5,500 hours) Nuclear Fuel oil + Combustion Turbine Decentralised thermic (cogeneration) Hydraulic Other REn Production (in TWh) Production (in TWh) 67.5 11.9 2.5 6.0 26.0 32.7 CCG + Coal Rational 148.1656.5 460.0 48.3 0.2 25.0 73.0 50.0 Installed power (in GW) Installed power (in GW)


Download ppt "MEDEF 1 New energies and new technologies : a source of growth and cooperation."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google