Local Demand, Urbanization and Amazonian Metropolitan Regions Impacts on Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon Sergio A. Castelani, Joaquim J.M. Guilhoto, Danilo C. Igliori Department of Economics, FEA – University of São Paulo E-mail: guilhoto@usp.br - Internet: guilhotojjmg.wordpress.com LACEA – São Paulo - November 20th to 22nd, 2014

Agenda Introduction The Amazon Region Methodology Productive Structure Deforestation Urbanization and Metropolitan Regions Methodology Productive Structure Who is Responsible? Final Comments

introduction

the amazon region

Brazilian States and Macro Regions

BRAZILIAN BIOMES AND POPULATION

Amazon deforestation

Amazon deforestation

Amazon deforestation Cattle Soybean Sugar Cane

Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Cattle - head Year: 1974 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional 4 - 50,000 50,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 1,200,000 1,200,001 - 2,000,000 Legend

Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Cattle - head Year: 2008 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional 4 - 50,000 50,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 600,000 600,001 - 800,000 800,001 - 1,200,000 1,200,001 - 2,000,000 Legend

Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Soybeans - production Year: 1990 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional 0 - 30,000 30,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 1,100,000 1,100,001 - 1,800,000 Legend Soybeans - tons

Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Soybeans - production Year: 2008 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional 0 - 30,000 30,001 - 80,000 80,001 - 150,000 150,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 400,000 400,001 - 700,000 700,001 - 1,100,000 1,100,001 - 1,800,000 Legend Soybeans - tons

Sugarcane - production Year: 1990 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional Legend 0 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 1,800,000 1,800,001 - 3,000,000 3,000,001 - 5,300,000 Sugarcane - tons

Sugarcane - production Year: 2008 Source: Adapted from: PPM / IBGE Visão Tridimensional Legend 0 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 250,000 250,001 - 500,000 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 1,800,000 1,800,001 - 3,000,000 3,000,001 - 5,300,000 Sugarcane - tons

Amazonian Metropolitan regions Cuiabá-Várzea Grande Urban Conglomerate Metropolitan Region of Manaus Macapá Metropolitan Region Great São Luís Metropolitan Region Metropolitan Region of Belém

Amzaonian Metropolitan regions

SOCIOECONOMIC DATA

DEFORESTATION & AMAZONIAN METROPOLITAN REGIONS

methodology

LEONTIEF MODEL

INTERREGIONAL MODELS

INTERREGIONAL MODELS The interregional model – Matrix Notation

MULTIPLIERS AND GENERATORS Coefficient: Generator Multiplier

IMPACT ANALYSIS

THE DATA

DATABASE

DATABASE Data sources Total output (Agriculture, Industry, Trade, Transport, Services, and Civil Construction surveys; IBGE) Imports/Exports (Ministry of Development, Industry and External Trade) Tax collection/Government spending (Ministry of Finance and the State Secretaries of Finance) Household spending (Household and Household Consumption Patterns surveys, IBGE) Payments to workers (Ministry of Labor and the IBGE Household Survey) Value-added generated at the level of 17 industries, by state (Brazilian Regional Accounts; IBGE) Investment (Level of the Civil Construction; IBGE) Etc.

DATABASE Microregional Input-Output Table for 2004 (NEREUS at FEA-USP) 558 microregions x 55 sectors Input-Output size 30,690 x 30,690 = 941,876,100 elements Aggregated to 3 regions (Amazon Metropolitan Retgions, Rest of Amazon Region, Rest of Brazil), with 23 sectors in each region

productive structure

OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

EMPLOYMENT GENERATION

VALUE ADDED GENERATION

VALUE ADDED GENERATION

VALUE ADDED GENERATION

DEFORESTATION

DIRECT DESTINATION OF THE REST OF AMAZON OUTPUT

OUTPUT OF THE REST OF AMAZON RELATED TO THE FINAL DEMAND

PER-CAPITA OUTPUT OF THE REST OF AMAZON RELATED TO THE FINAL DEMAND

DEFORESTATION WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

FINAL COMMENTS Thank You! guilhoto@usp.br guilhotojjmg.wordpress.com