1. A SUMMARY NOTE ON REVISED GDP ESTIMATES
A SUMMARY NOTE ON REVISED GDP ESTIMATES
COVERING
TURKEY
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2.
I. INTRODUCTION
A more relevant conceptual framework that reflects contemporary requirements for measuring Turkey’s economic and financial conditions.
Ensures comparability of Turkey’s statistics with other countries.
Enables Turkey to meet data requirements of international organizations.
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3. II.TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS HISTORICAL REVISION AND FUTURE PLAN
II.TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS HISTORICAL REVISION AND FUTURE PLAN
Comprehensive revisions of Turkish National Accounts System
Base Year ( Published in 1950 )
Base Year ( Published in 1972 )
Base Year ( Published in 1993 )
Base Year ( Published in 2008 )
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4.
A major undertaking of several years of intense efforts that improved measure of economic activities, understandability of accounts and harmonization with international standards
Steps to inform users of major changes:
Strategic Plan
Official Statistical Program
Presentation performed by Turkstat during screening process, which is part of EU accession process.
Meetings with the press
Discussion with major users,
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5.
III. OVERVIEW OF MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
The international guidelines for compiling national accounts and GDP.
European System of Accounts 1995 replaced the 1968 SNA
Current situation in Turkey vis-à-vis the guidelines
Turkstat was compiling GDP on the basis on the 1968 SNA
Turkstat has a two-phase program for implementing the ESA 95
First, implementation in March of 2008
Second phase is elaborated in Turkstat’s Strategic Plan
Historical revisions come from three types of improvements
Definitions, classifications, and other methodological improvements
Improvements to source data
Improvements to statistical techniques
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6. IV. MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
IV. MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO TURKEY’S NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
The 2002 Census of Industry and Business Establishments
Better coverage of production of goods and services, particularly for manufacturing industries, updated business register leading to improved results from future sample surveys.
The Labor Force Survey (LFS)
Improved LFS sample size increases accuracy, content is expanded.
Results in improvements to the adjustments for the Non-Observed Economy (better exhaustiveness)
The 2000 Building Census and the Number of Electricity Subscribers.
Improved data on the number of dwellings which is used in the estimates of paid and imputed rents by type of dwelling and heating system.
The 2001 Farm Census
Updates and improves technical coefficients utilized for estimation of the sector’s value added
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7. Improvements to the commodity flow system
Improvements to the commodity flow system
Improves the identification of goods used in intermediate consumption, investment, and household consumption
Improves the indirect estimates of selected components of final demand (GDP by expenditure) and selected adjustments to production (e.g., construction).
Improved Supply and Use tables for 2002, basis for benchmark year
The 2002 Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables is the first table compiled by the concepts, definitions and classifications of the 1995 European System of Accounts (ESA’95).
Financial Services measured according to ESA 95
Measurement of the “Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured” (FISIM) according to ESA 95
A portion of FISIM is allocated to final consumption (final demand), which would increase GDP by the portion of FISIM that is used in final demand
A portion of FISIM is allocated to intermediate consumption in GDP by production approach.
Central Bank output is measured as sum of costs.
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8. Introduction of a revised base year (1998)
Introduction of a revised base year (1998)
Improves the accuracy of constant price GDP
Adoption of chain-linking method in constant price estimation
Gives more accurate aggregate volume growth rate
Adoption of Unit value indices at constant price estimation of exports/imports of goods.
Measurement at basic prices (GDP by Production Approach)
The VAT (and other taxes and subsidies on products) are now shown as a separate component of GDP
No net impact on GDP, but better measurement of value added
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9.
Classification systems based on ESA 95 and other international standards
New classification of industries (NACE Rev. 1) and private household consumption (COICOP) will facilitate international comparison
Reclassification of some components of GDP by industries (such as government production, which is now allocated to public administration, health, and education)
Free Trade Zones is included in economic territory of country
Government Final Consumption is split up two categories.
Individual Final Consumption Expenditure of Government
Collective Final Consumption Expenditure of Government
Final Consumption Expenditure of Households is divided into four groups
Final consumption expenditure of resident and non-resident households on the economic territory
Final consumption expenditure of resident households in abroad.
Final consumption expenditure of non-resident households on the economic territory.
Final consumption expenditure of resident households.
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