1. Structural Path Analysis Applied to India’s Carbon Emissions
Li Yingzhu, Su Bin, Shyamasree Dasgupta
IAEE, Singapore, 19 June 2017

2. Introduction Global efforts in climate change mitigation
A lot of studies on China, but not many on India
Around 7% of total global emissions by India
Developing country with the 2nd largest population on the planet
Important to understand India’s emissions profile and the impacts of different development strategies on emissions

3. Methodology for India’s Emissions Profile (a)
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) analysis:
where factor inputs (i.e. labor, capital and land) and households are endogenous accounts
Carbon emissions attributed to
Government consumption
Investment
Exports

4. Methodology for India’s Emissions Profile (b)
Structural Path Analysis (SPA) by transmission layer:
Final Demand
Intermediate inputs
Intermediate input’s intermediate inputs
Intermediate input’s intermediate input’s intermediate inputs, …

5. Methodology for Emissions Induced by Development (a)
Structural Path Analysis (SPA) of emissions arising from exogenous demand shock by transmission layer:
 Final Demand
 Intermediate inputs
 Intermediate input’s intermediate inputs
 Intermediate input’s intermediate input’s intermediate inputs,…

6. Methodology for Emissions Induced by Development (b)
Structural Path Analysis (SPA) of emissions arising from exogenous demand shock by transmission path:
1-node path
2-node path
Am,m
Am,i
3-node path
Fm,mym
yi
4-node path, …
Fm,m 1ym
Ai,m

7. Data India’s SAM 2007-08 by Pradhan et al. (2013)
78 production activities
5 factor inputs
9 household groups
Energy/Carbon emissions data compiled from
Annual Survey of Industries ( )
National Sample Survey (NSS) reports
Energy Balance Table
Others
In , India had around 1,398 million tons of carbon emissions from combustion
1,243 million tons or 89% from 78 production activities
155 million tons or 11% from households

8. India’s Emissions Profile (a)

9. India’s Emissions Profile (b)

10. Emissions Induced by Exogenous Demand Shock (a)59 43

11. Emissions Induced by Exogenous Demand Shock (b1)

12. Emissions Induced by Exogenous Demand Shock (b2)

13. Discussion & Conclusion
Investment is the major driver of India’s emissions
Less than 20% of emissions arising from exports
The Indian economy still depends primarily on domestic markets
Emissions centralize in sectors whose outputs are key intermediate inputs
Metals, Cement and Land Transport > 35% of total emissions
Chemicals, the 4th emissive sector, <5% of total emissions
Non-emissions intensive production activities may also lead to significant emissions
Energy efficiency
R&D
Adoption
Clean energy
Wind power, solar power, biomass energy, hydropower, nuclear power, clean coal, etc.

14. Thank you! For enquiries:
Energy Studies Institute Heng Mui Keng Terrace Block A, # Singapore
For enquiries:
Dr. Li Yingzhu Tel: (65) Fax: (65)