John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service 2016 So Far/ A Look Ahead John Lewis, Senior Forecaster National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas john.lewis@noaa.gov

In this Saga… Across the United States, 2016 has been the year of the flood and also the year of the drought. Ditto for Arkansas, with flooding in March and August followed by a developing drought in the fall. It has been warm as well. The official forecast calls for dry/mild conditions to continue this winter based on a weak La Niña, but local climate suggests otherwise.

Precipitation in 2016 Through November

Precipitation in 2016 Through November Departure from average, with plus values in the southeast and minus values in the northwest.

Precipitation in 2016 Through November Month Amount Departure Rank Jan 2.07 -1.97 24th Dry Feb 2.49 -1.23 31st Dry Mar 9.86 +5.09 3rd Wet Apr 5.99 +0.95 31st Wet May 4.64 -0.51 55th Dry Jun 3.14 -0.94 39th Dry Jul 4.89 +1.18 28th Wet Aug 7.59 +4.21 Sep 1.80 -1.79 20th Dry Oct 1.65 -1.81 Nov 3.25 -1.04 46th Dry Total 47.37 +2.13 41st Wet

Temperatures in 2016 Through November

Temperatures in 2016 Through November Month Amount Departure Rank Jan 39.5 +0.2 59th Cool Feb 46.9 +3.8 24th Warm Mar 55.5 +4.2 18th Warm Apr 62.6 +2.1 32nd Warm May 67.1 -1.6 30th Cool Jun 79.0 +2.5 15th Warm Jul 82.0 +1.7 20th Warm Aug 80.0 +0.6 49th Cool Sep 75.8 +2.9 16th Warm Oct 67.0 +5.2 4th Warm Nov 55.6 +5.7 5th Warm Total 64.6

Thought For the Day “There are three kinds of people…those who can count and those who can’t.”

Drought Monitor December 6, 2016

Wet Pattern March, 2016

Wet Pattern March, 2016

Hot Summer

Hot Pattern July 21, 2016

Heat Index Forecast July 21, 2016

Actual Heat Index July 22, 2016

Big Time Rain June 22-28, 2016

Wet Pattern August, 2016

Wet Pattern August, 2016

Wet Pattern August, 2016

The Tropics Tropical systems struggle to form over the Atlantic basin given El Niño. The opposite is true with La Niña.

The Tropics There were only four named storms (one hurricane) through July. There were eleven named storms thereafter.

The Tropics Normal: 11 Matthew, Oct. 6 Normal: 6 Normal: 3

The Tropics

Dry Pattern October, 2016

Relief Coming November, 2016

Relief Coming November, 2016

Relief Coming November, 2016

Relief Coming November, 2016

Relief Coming November, 2016

A Dwindling El Niño February 10, 2016

A Dwindling El Niño April 27, 2016

Drought in South America Because of El Niño Drought in South America From Reuters… Problem: “Home to the world's largest fresh water supply, Brazil has not previously had much reason for conservation.”

Drought in South America Because of El Niño Drought in South America From isciences…

ENSO 2016/Early 2017 El Niño La Niña

Winter Temperature Dec, 2016 – Feb, 2017

Winter Precipitation Dec, 2016 – Feb, 2017

Dec/Jan/Feb Temperature Transition Winter Dec/Jan/Feb Temperature Year Average Temp Departure 1959/1960 40.7° -0.6° 1966/1967 40.9° -0.4° 1983/1984 36.5° -4.8° 1992/1993 2005/2006 42.8° +1.5° Total 40.4° -0.9°

Dec/Jan/Feb Precipitation Transition Winter Dec/Jan/Feb Precipitation Year Amount Departure 1959/1960 12.73 +0.61 1966/1967 7.83 -4.29 1983/1984 12.66 +0.54 1992/1993 12.57 +0.45 2005/2006 7.86 -4.26 Total 10.73 -1.39

Arctic Oscillation (AO) Negative Phase

Arctic Oscillation (AO) Negative Phase

Arctic Oscillation (AO) Negative Phase

The Upcoming Winter? A Look Back to February 9, 2011 Big snow and ice storms have hit in La Niña years.

The Upcoming Winter? In addition to snow/ice, the focus usually turns to severe weather. Severe storms are most active when La Niña is present (such as 1999, 2008, and 2011).

The Upcoming Winter? Not only is there more severe weather, it starts early (January or February). One of the most violent tornadoes in recent memory was spawned on Super Tuesday (February 5th) in 2008.

The Bottom Line While climate records indicate a chance of below average temperatures this winter, most guidance suggests a mild period. There is some hope for appreciable precipitation this winter, not dry throughout. If the AO goes negative, or we actually have a La Niña, that could mean more cold than expected or more severe weather than expected.

On the Web http://www.weather.gov/lzk

The End Thanks for coming!