Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
A Climate Study of Daily Temperature Change From the Previous Day
By Matt Masek 14th High Plains AMS/NWA Conference
2
Outline Data Monthly Statistics Effects of Precipitation
Strong Frontal Passages Extreme Values Final Thoughts
3
Data North Platte (LBF) Daily Observation 111 Years or 40,542 Days
July 1, 1899 (June 30,1899) to June 30, 2010 Day 2 Compared To Day 1 (D2-D1=X) Highs Lows Average Temperature (no rounding) X can be Positive, Negative, or 0 (Equal)
4
High Temperatures Month Total Days Positive D2-D1 Negative D2-D1
Equal D2-D1 Jan 3,441 1,697 49.3% 1,579 45.9% 165 4.8% Feb 3,135 1,605 51.2% 1,410 45.0% 120 3.8% Mar 1,809 52.6% 1,516 44.1% 116 3.4% Apr 3,330 1,763 52.9% 1,457 43.8% 110 3.3% May 1,840 53.5% 1,446 42.0% 155 4.5% Jun 1,751 1,389 41.7% 190 5.7% Jul 1,768 51.4% 1,475 42.9% 198 5.8% Aug 1,743 50.7% 1,469 42.7% 229 6.7% Sep 1,666 50.0% 1,512 45.4% 152 4.6% Oct 1,728 50.2% 1,587 46.1% 126 3.7% Nov 1,624 48.8% 1,578 47.4% 128 Dec 1,632 1,644 47.8% Yr Total 40,542 20,626 50.9% 18,062 44.6% 1,854
6
Low Temperatures Month Total Days Positive D2-D1 Negative D2-D1
Equal D2-D1 Jan 3,441 1,523 44.3% 1,708 49.6% 210 6.1% Feb 3,135 1,415 45.1% 1,514 48.3% 206 6.6% Mar 1,568 45.6% 1,667 48.4% 6.0% Apr 3,330 1,522 45.7% 1,623 48.7% 185 5.6% May 1.568 1,674 48.6% 199 5.8% Jun 1,533 46.0% 1,573 47.2% 224 6.7% Jul 1,526 1,600 46.5% 315 9.2% Aug 1,485 43.2% 1,676 280 8.1% Sep 1,395 41.9% 1,733 52.0% 202 Oct 1,447 42.1% 1,772 51.5% 222 6.5% Nov 1,402 1,710 51.4% 218 Dec 1,479 43.0% 1,752 50.9% Yr Total 40,542 17,863 44.1% 20,002 49.3% 2,677
8
Average Temperatures Month Total Days Positive D2-D1 Negative D2-D1
Equal D2-D1 Jan 3,441 1,776 51.6% 1,582 46.0% 83 2.4% Feb 3,135 1,620 51.7% 1,422 45.4% 93 3.0% Mar 1,844 53.6% 1,517 44.1% 80 2.3% Apr 3,330 1,777 53.4% 1,460 43.8% 2.8% May 1,816 52.6% 1,497 43.5% 128 3.7% Jun 1,774 53.3% 1,434 43.1% 122 Jul 1,719 50.0% 1,568 45.6% 154 4.5% Aug 1,648 47.9% 1,634 47.5% 159 4.6% Sep 1,626 48.8% 1,581 123 Oct 1,685 49.0% 1,656 48.1% 100 2.9% Nov 1,588 47.7% 1,630 48.9% 112 3.4% Dec 1,642 1,687 3.3% Yr Total 40,542 20,515 50.6% 18,668 46.6% 1,359
10
Precipitation Compare Day 1 Received Rain Compare Day 2 Received Rain
Both Day 1 & Day 2 Received Rain Positive Negative Neutral (Equal to 0)
11
High Temperatures Month Total Days Positive D2-D1 Negative D2-D1
Equal D2-D1 Jan 3,441 1,697 49.3% 1,579 45.9% 165 4.8% Feb 3,135 1,605 51.2% 1,410 45.0% 120 3.8% Mar 1,809 52.6% 1,516 44.1% 116 3.4% Apr 3,330 1,763 52.9% 1,457 43.8% 110 3.3% May 1,840 53.5% 1,446 42.0% 155 4.5% Jun 1,751 1,389 41.7% 190 5.7% Jul 1,768 51.4% 1,475 42.9% 198 5.8% Aug 1,743 50.7% 1,469 42.7% 229 6.7% Sep 1,666 50.0% 1,512 45.4% 152 4.6% Oct 1,728 50.2% 1,587 46.1% 126 3.7% Nov 1,624 48.8% 1,578 47.4% 128 Dec 1,632 1,644 47.8% Yr Total 40,542 20,626 50.9% 18,062 44.6% 1,854
12
Positive Day 2 High Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Positive Day 1 Rain Positive Day 2 Rain Positive Both Rain Jan 1,697 567 33.4% 375 22.1% 228 13.4% Feb 1,605 617 38.4% 360 22.4% 237 14.8% Mar 1,809 737 40.7% 441 24.4% 285 15.8% Apr 1,763 736 41.7% 511 29.0% 302 17.1% May 1,840 891 48.4% 730 39.7% 451 24.5% Jun 1,751 846 48.3% 708 40.4% 439 25.1% Jul 1,768 769 43.5% 644 36.4% 353 20.0% Aug 1,743 688 39.5% 570 32.7% 303 17.4% Sep 1,666 575 34.5% 381 22.9% 211 12.7% Oct 1,728 489 28.3% 260 15.0% 163 9.4% Nov 1,624 473 29.1% 263 16.2% 158 9.7% Dec 1,632 503 30.8% 296 18.1% 186 11.4% Yr Total 20,626 7,891 38.3% 5,539 26.9% 3,316 16.1%
14
Negative Day 2 High Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Negative Day 1 Rain Negative Day 2 Rain Negative Both Rain Jan 1,579 549 34.8% 747 47.3% 385 24.4% Feb 1,410 529 37.5% 795 56.4% 404 28.7% Mar 1,516 607 40.0% 914 60.3% 475 31.3% Apr 1,457 642 44.1% 887 60.9% 494 33.9% May 1,446 767 53.0% 925 64.0% 559 38.7% Jun 1,389 724 52.1% 830 59.8% 500 36.0% Jul 1,475 691 46.8% 829 56.2% 457 31.0% Aug 1,469 660 44.9% 768 52.3% 422 Sep 1,512 538 35.6% 729 48.2% 374 24.7% Oct 1,587 410 25.8% 630 39.7% 264 16.6% Nov 1,578 453 671 42.5% 313 19.8% Dec 1,644 531 32.3% 749 45.6% 356 21.7% Yr Total 18,062 7,101 39.3% 9,474 52.5% 5,003 27.7%
16
Equal Day 2 High Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Equal Day 1 Rain Equal Day 2 Rain Equal Both Rain Jan 165 58 35.2% 54 32.7% 32 19.4% Feb 120 50 41.7% 47 39.2% 34 28.3% Mar 116 53 45.7% 43 37.1% 28 24.1% Apr 110 55 50.0% 45 40.9% 25.5% May 155 69 44.5% 86 55.5% 46 29.7% Jun 190 97 51.1% 103 54.2% 62 32.6% Jul 198 85 42.9% 82 41.4% 38 19.2% Aug 229 93 40.6% 90 39.3% 24.0% Sep 152 35 23.0% 40 26.3% 16 10.5% Oct 126 27.0% 22.2% 18 14.3% Nov 128 33 25.8% 21.9% 12.5% Dec 52 31.5% 28.5% 24 14.5% Yr Total 1,854 714 38.5% 693 37.4% 397 21.4%
18
Positive Day 2 Low Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Positive Day 1 Rain Positive Day 2 Rain Positive Both Rain Jan 1,523 306 20.1% 434 28.5% 174 11.4% Feb 1,415 323 22.8% 445 31.4% 187 13.2% Mar 1,568 371 23.7% 578 36.9% 229 14.6% Apr 1,522 392 25.8% 631 41.5% 259 17.0% May 562 35.8% 815 52.0% 25.0% Jun 1,533 596 38.9% 744 48.5% 387 25.2% Jul 1,526 535 35.1% 680 44.6% 320 21.0% Aug 1,485 476 32.1% 627 42.2% 291 19.6% Sep 1,395 274 444 31.8% 170 12.2% Oct 1,447 184 12.7% 376 26.0% 122 8.4% Nov 1,402 227 16.2% 384 27.4% 140 10.0% Dec 1,479 284 19.2% 431 29.1% 171 11.6% Yr Total 17,863 4,530 25.4% 6,589 2,842 15.9%
20
Negative Day 2 Low Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Negative Day 1 Rain Negative Day 2 Rain Negative Both Rain Jan 1,708 799 46.8% 666 39.0% 429 25.1% Feb 1,514 794 52.4% 682 45.0% 443 29.3% Mar 1,667 933 56.0% 723 43.4% 500 30.0% Apr 1,623 937 57.7% 720 44.4% 499 30.7% May 1,674 1,061 63.4% 803 48.0% 584 34.9% Jun 1,573 945 60.1% 770 49.0% 530 33.7% Jul 1,600 848 53.0% 716 44.8% 26.8% Aug 1,676 840 50.1% 679 40.5% 417 24.9% Sep 1,733 796 45.9% 630 36.4% 387 22.3% Oct 1,772 689 38.9% 482 27.2% 281 15.9% Nov 1,710 671 39.2% 514 30.1% 315 18.4% Dec 1,752 738 42.1% 600 34.2% 365 20.8% Yr Total 20,002 10,051 50.2% 7,985 39.9% 5,179 25.9%
22
Equal Day 2 Low Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Equal Day 1 Rain Equal Day 2 Rain Equal Both Rain Jan 210 69 32.9% 76 36.2% 42 20.0% Feb 206 79 38.3% 75 36.4% 45 21.8% Mar 93 45.1% 97 47.1% 59 28.6% Apr 185 104 56.2% 92 49.7% 66 35.7% May 199 52.3% 123 61.8% 80 40.2% Jun 224 126 56.3% 127 56.7% 84 37.5% Jul 315 162 51.4% 159 50.5% 99 31.4% Aug 280 125 44.6% 122 43.6% 72 25.7% Sep 202 78 38.6% 37.6% 44 Oct 222 60 27.0% 18.9% Nov 218 61 28.0% 64 29.4% 32 14.7% Dec 30.5% 29.0% 30 14.3% Yr Total 2,677 1,125 42.0% 1,132 42.3% 695 26.0%
24
Positive Day 2 Avg Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Positive Day 1 Rain Positive Day 2 Rain Positive Both Rain Jan 1,776 504 28.4% 419 23.6% 212 11.9% Feb 1,620 546 33.7% 396 24.4% 229 14.1% Mar 1,844 650 35.2% 502 27.2% 269 14.6% Apr 1,777 661 37.2% 561 31.6% 295 16.6% May 1,816 796 43.8% 783 43.1% 423 23.3% Jun 1,774 800 45.1% 786 44.3% 457 25.8% Jul 1,719 686 39.9% 677 39.4% 355 20.7% Aug 1,648 602 36.5% 595 36.1% 296 18.0% Sep 1,626 477 29.3% 435 26.8% 204 12.5% Oct 1,685 385 22.8% 308 18.3% 160 9.5% Nov 1,588 389 24.5% 294 18.5% 145 9.1% Dec 1,642 438 26.7% 349 21.3% 185 11.3% Yr Total 20,515 6,934 33.8% 6,105 29.8% 3,230 15.7%
26
Negative Day 2 Avg Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Negative Day 1 Rain Negative Day 2 Rain Negative Both Rain Jan 1,582 636 40.2% 727 46.0% 413 26.1% Feb 1,422 611 43.0% 771 54.2% 428 30.1% Mar 1,517 715 47.1% 868 57.2% 505 33.3% Apr 1,460 728 49.9% 839 57.5% 504 34.5% May 1,497 865 57.8% 898 60.0% 590 39.4% Jun 1,434 810 56.5% 807 56.3% 516 36.0% Jul 1,568 774 49.4% 811 51.7% 451 28.8% Aug 1,634 777 47.6% 761 46.6% 445 27.2% Sep 1,581 631 39.9% 685 43.3% 381 24.1% Oct 1,656 519 31.3% 35.6% 276 16.7% Nov 1,630 545 33.4% 649 39.8% 332 20.4% Dec 1,687 619 36.7% 717 42.5% 367 21.8% Yr Total 18,668 8,230 44.1% 9,123 48.9% 5,208 27.9%
28
Equal Day 2 Avg Temp with Precip
Month Total Days Equal Day 1 Rain Equal Day 2 Rain Equal Both Rain Jan 83 34 41.0% 30 36.1% 20 24.1% Feb 93 39 41.9% 35 37.6% 18 19.4% Mar 80 32 40.0% 28 35.0% 14 17.5% Apr 44 47.3% 43 46.2% 25 26.9% May 128 66 51.6% 60 46.9% 33.6% Jun 122 57 46.7% 48 39.3% 23.0% Jul 154 85 55.2% 67 43.5% 42 27.3% Aug 159 62 39.0% 72 45.3% 24.5% Sep 123 40 32.5% 24.4% 16 13.0% Oct 100 29 29.0% 20.0% 9 9.0% Nov 112 22.3% 19 17.0% 10 8.9% Dec 25.9% 26 23.2% 12.5% Yr Total 1,359 542 39.9% 478 35.2% 278 20.5%
30
Frontal Passage Cold Front Warm Front
Day 2 High within 1 degree of Day 1 Low 573 Frontal Passages Warm Front Day 2 Low within 1 degree of Day 1 High 95 Frontal Passages
31
Cold Front (Change in Max Temp)
Month -40+ -30 to -39 -20 to -29 -10 to -19 0 to -9 Total Tot % January 1 16 20 24 11 72 12.6% February 2 7 15 33 77 13.4% March 19 22 69 12.0% April 4 23 12 55 9.6% May 9 28 4.9% June 5 8 2.6% July 6 1.2% August 1.6% September 3 13 34 5.9% October 10 38 6.6% November 29 27 73 12.7% December 35 37 96 16.8% Year Total 51 139 224 153 573
32
Warm Front (Change in Max Temp)
Month 0 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40+ Total Tot % January 4 7 3 1 15 15.8% February 5 2 11 11.6% March 9 9.5% April 6 6.3% May June 1.1% July August 0.0% September October November 14 14.7% December 12 12.6% Year Total 31 36 22 95
35
Extreme Daily Changes (Day 2 compared to Day 1)
High Temp Change Low Temp Change Ave Temp Change Below 2 -49.5 to -40 28 -39.5 to -30 213 6 9 -29.5 to -20 139 171 311 -19.5 to -10 5,031 2,524 3,411 -9 .5 to 0 13,244 19,978 17,655 0.5 to 10 15,319 15,080 18,170 10.5 to 20 4,556 2,591 2,243 20.5 to 30 676 181 97 30.5 to 40 68 10 5 Above 40 7 1
40
Final Thoughts (Fun Facts)
High Temperatures Average Daily Change If D2 Warmer → +7.7° (50.9%) If D2 Colder → -8.8° (44.6%) Low Temperatures If D2 Warmer → +6.0° (44.1%) If D2 Colder → -5.4° (49.3%) Average Temperatures If D2 Warmer → +5.2° (50.6%) If D2 Colder → -5.7° (46.6%)
41
Final Thoughts Day 2 High Warmer than Day 1
Day 2 Low Cooler than Day 1 Precip on Day 1 Day 2 High More Likely to be Warmer Day 2 Low More Likely to be Cooler Precip on Day 2 Day 2 High More Likely to be Cooler Day 2 Low More Likely to be Warmer Many More Cold Fronts than Warm Fronts Fronts Cause ± 10° to 19° Temp Change Most Often
42
Thank You ???
Similar presentations
